Kufanele UNWTO vula ibhodlela likaDon Perion mayelana nokwakamuva UNWTO Umbiko oqhakazile weWorld Tourism Barometer mayelana nokululama kwezokuvakasha? World Tourism Network (WTN) UMongameli kanye Nesazi sezokuphepha uDkt. Peter Tarlow ngeke ajoyine UNWTO Unobhala-Jikelele u-Zurab Pololikashvili kule toast.
UDkt Peter Tarlow, WTN: "Linda umzuzu nje!"
Ngokusho kwamuva UNWTO I-World Tourism Barometer, ezokuvakasha zamazwe ngamazwe ibone ukuphindaphindeka okunamandla ezinyangeni ezinhlanu zokuqala zika-2022, futhi kwaqoshwa abafika bamazwe ngamazwe abacishe babe yizigidi ezingama-250. Lokhu kuqhathaniswa nabafika ezigidini ezingama-77 kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi 2021 futhi kusho ukuthi lo mkhakha usuthole cishe uhhafu (46%) wamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane luka-2019.
Lezi yizindaba ezinhle
Imininingwane enikezwe UNWTO ekukhishweni okusanda kukhululwa UNWTO i-barometer igcizelela le nqubekelaphambili enkulu ekubuyiselweni komkhakha wezokuvakasha nowokuvakasha.
Mhlawumbe ngaphambi kokuvula ibhodlela lesibili lika-Don Perion, qaphela isiphepho esinamandla esivele siduma emkhathizwe. Ukungaqiniseki ngalesi sithombe esikhanyayo se-rebound yezokuvakasha kuba yingozi kakhulu ngosuku.
“Ukusimama kwezokuvakasha kukhule ngesivinini ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba, ukumelana nezinselelo ezisendleleni yakho,” kusho. UNWTO Unobhala-Jikelele uZurab Pololikashvili. Ngaso leso sikhathi, uphinde weluleka ngesexwayiso uma kubhekwa “izivunguvungu zezomnotho nezinselelo zezwe ezingase zibe nomthelela kulo mkhakha esikhathini esisele sika-2022 nangale kwalokho”.
Unobhala-jikelele unesizathu esihle sokukuphawula lokhu. Ngokuvumelana ne WTN, Rekhoda ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu, ukuguqulwa kweDola laseMelika, iRuble eliqinile naphezu kwezigwegwe, impi e-Ukraine kanye neRussia, kanye nenkinga yokudla namandla engaba khona ingaphusha kalula imboni yezokuvakasha neyokuvakasha ekhoneni elimnyama. World Tourism Network ikhathazeke kakhulu ngamabhizinisi aphakathi nendawo namancane angase aphinde ashaqeke.
ICoronavirus ayikaqedwa kodwa inamandla kunakuqala, kodwa akekho osafuna ukukhuluma ngayo. Wonke umuntu ukhathele ukuhlala yedwa ekhaya futhi indiza egcwele abantu abashonile e-United States ku-COVID-19 nsuku zonke ayisasebenzi.
Futhi kukhona inkawu? Ingabe yisitabane kuphela okufanele sikhathazeke ngaso? Iqiniso lihluke kakhulu.
IYurophu neMelika zihola ekululameni
Europe yamukele abafikeli bamazwe ngamazwe ngokuphindwe kane kunangezinyanga ezinhlanu zokuqala zika-2021 (+350%), okukhuliswe isidingo esinamandla sangaphakathi kwesifunda kanye nokususwa kwayo yonke imikhawulo yokuhamba emazweni amaningi. Isifunda sibone ukusebenza okuqinile ngo-Ephreli (+458%), okubonisa isikhathi esimatasa sePhasika. Emazweni aseMelika, abafikayo baphindeke ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili (+112%). Kodwa-ke, i-rebound eqinile ikalwa ngemiphumela ebuthakathaka ngo-2021, futhi abafikayo bahlala bengama-36% kanye nama-40% ngaphansi kwamazinga ka-2019 kuzo zombili izifunda, ngokulandelana.
Iphethini efanayo ibonakala kwezinye izifunda. Ukukhula okuqinile kwe Emaphakathi Mpumalanga (+ 157%) no Africa (+156%) kwahlala kungama-54% no-50% ngaphansi kwamazinga ka-2019, ngokulandelana, kanti i-Asia ne-Pacific cishe yaphinda kabili abafikayo (+94%). Kodwa-ke, izinombolo bezingama-90% ngaphansi kuka-2019, njengoba eminye imingcele yahlala ivaliwe ekuhambeni okungabalulekile. Lapha, ukunwetshwa kwemikhawulo kwakamuva kukhombisa imiphumela ethuthukisiwe ka-Ephreli noMeyi.
Izifunda eziningana seziluleme phakathi kuka-70% no-80% wamazinga azo angaphambi kobhubhane, eziholwa I-Caribbean ne-Central America, ulandelwa ngu I-Southern Mediterranean, iNtshonalanga neNyakatho Yurophu. Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ezinye izindawo okuyiwa kuzo zidlule amazinga ka-2019, okuhlanganisa i-US Virgin Islands, i-St. Maarten, i-Republic of Moldova, i-Albania, i-Honduras, ne-Puerto Rico.
Izindleko zokuvakasha nazo ziyakhuphuka.
Rising ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwezokuvakasha kusuka ezimakethe ezinkulu zemithombo kuyahambisana nokutholwa okuphawuliwe. Izindleko zamazwe ngamazwe ngabavakashi abavela eFrance, eJalimane, e-Italy nase-United States manje seziku-70% kuya ku-85% wamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukusetshenziswa kwemali okuvela e-India, Saudi Arabia, naseQatar sekuvele kudlule amazinga ka-2019.
Mayelana namazwe omhlaba amarisidi ezokuvakasha izuzwe ezindaweni, inani elikhulayo lamazwe - iRiphabhulikhi yaseMoldova, iSerbia, iSeychelles, iRomania, iNyakatho yeMacedonia, iSaint Lucia, iBosnia & Herzegovina, i-Albania, iPakistan, iSudan, iTürkiye, iBangladesh, i-El Salvador, iMexico, iCroatia, nePortugal - sebewabuyise ngokugcwele amazinga abo angaphambi kobhubhane.
Ukumelana nezinselelo ezikhulayo
Isidingo esinamandla phakathi nenkathi yehlobo yaseNyakatho Nenkabazwe kulindeleke ukuthi sihlanganise le miphumela emihle, ikakhulukazi njengoba izindawo okuyiwa kuzo ziba lula noma ziphakamisa imikhawulo yokuhamba. Kusukela mhla zingama-22 kuJulayi, izindawo ezingama-62 (ezingama-39 kuzo eYurophu) zazingenayo imingcele ehlobene ne-COVID-19, futhi inani elandayo lezindawo e-Asia seliqalile ukudambisa ezazo.
Ngokusho kwe-International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), ukwehla kukonke komthamo womoya wamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2022 kuzokhawulelwa ku-20% kuya ku-25% wezihlalo zezinkampani zezindiza uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019. Ukuqina okunjalo kubonakala futhi kumanani okuhlala kwamahhotela. Ngokusekelwe kudatha evela enkampanini elinganiselayo yomkhakha i-STR, amazinga okuhlala emhlabeni wonke akhuphuke afinyelela ku-66% ngoJuni 2022, esuka ku-43% ngoJanuwari.
Kodwa-ke, isidingo esinamandla kunesilindelekile sidale izinselelo ezinkulu zokusebenza kanye nabasebenzi. Impi yase-Ukraine, ukukhuphuka kwamandla emali kanye nezinga lenzalo, kanye nokwesaba ukwehla komnotho, kuyaqhubeka kubeka engcupheni yokusimama. I-International Monetary Fund ikhomba ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni wonke isuka ku-6.1% ngo-2021 yaya ku-3.2% ngo-2022 kanye no-2.9% ngo-2023. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, UNWTO iyaqhubeka nokusebenzisana eduze neNhlangano Yezempilo Yomhlaba (i-WHO) ukuqapha ubhubhane kanye nezimo eziphuthumayo zezempilo zomphakathi ezivelayo kanye nomthelela wazo ongaba khona ekuhambeni.
Izimo zesifunda zango-2022
UNWTOIzimo ezibheke phambili ezishicilelwe ngoMeyi 2022 zikhomba ekufikeni kwamanye amazwe afinyelela ku-55% kuya ku-70% wamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane ngo-2022. Imiphumela incike ezimweni eziguqukayo, ikakhulukazi ukushintsha imikhawulo yokuhamba, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo, amanani aphezulu kagesi, izimo zomnotho zizonke, ukuvela kwempi e-Ukraine, kanye nesimo sezempilo esihlobene nalolu bhubhane. Izinselele zakamuva ezifana nokushoda kwezisebenzi, isiminyaminya esikhulu sesikhumulo sezindiza, ukubambezeleka kwezindiza, nokukhanselwa kungase kuthinte izinombolo zezokuvakasha zamazwe ngamazwe.
Izimo ngokwesifunda zibonisa iYurophu neMelika ziqopha imiphumela ehamba phambili yezokuvakasha ngo-2022, kuyilapho i-Asia nePacific kulindeleke ukuthi ibambezeleke ngenxa yezinqubomgomo zokuvakasha ezinemikhawulo eyengeziwe. Abavakashi bamazwe ngamazwe abafika e Europe ingakhuphukela ku-65% noma ku-80% wamazinga ka-2019 ngo-2022, kuye ngezimo ezahlukahlukene, ngenkathi Melika, bangafinyelela ku-63% kuya ku-76% kulawo mazinga.
In I-Afrika kanye neMpumalanga Ephakathi, abafikayo bangafinyelela cishe ku-50% kuya ku-70% wamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane. Uma kuqhathaniswa, e-Asia nasePacific, bazohlala ku-30% wamazinga ka-2019 esimweni esihle kakhulu ngenxa yezinqubomgomo nemikhawulo eqinile.
LOKHO ONGAKUTHATHE KULESI SIHLOKO:
- Ngokuvumelana ne WTN, Record high inflation, the shifting of the US Dollar, a strong Ruble despite sanctions, the war in Ukraine and Russia, and a possible food and energy crisis can easily push the fragile travel and tourism industry into a dark corner.
- Everyone is tired of sitting at home in isolation and a widebody plane load of the dead in the United States on COVID-19 every day is no longer relevant.
- At the same time, he also advises caution given the “economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges which could impact the sector in the remainder of 2022 and beyond”.
