I-International Air Transport Association (IATA) imemezele ukwehliswa kwesimo sayo sango-2019 kwimboni yezokuthutha ngomoya emhlabeni wonke kube yinzuzo engama- $ 28 billion (kusuka kwizibikezelo ezingama- $ 35.5 billion ngoDisemba 2018). Lokho futhi ukwehla kwenzuzo yenani langemuva lentela ka-2018 i-IATA ilinganisela ku- $ 30 billion (kuchazwe kabusha).
Isimo sebhizinisi sezindiza siye sonakala ngokwenyuka kwamanani kaphethiloli kanye nokwehla okukhulu kwezohwebo emhlabeni. Ngo-2019 izindleko zonke kulindeleke ukuthi zikhule ngo-7.4%, zidlula ukukhuphuka kwemali engu-6.5%. Ngenxa yalokhu, imishado yemithombo kulindeleke ukuthi icindezelwe ibe ngu-3.2% (kusuka ku-3.7% ngo-2018). Inzuzo ngomgibeli ngamunye nayo izokwehla iye ku- $ 6.12 (kusuka ku- $ 6.85 ngo-2018).
“Lo nyaka kuzoba unyaka weshumi kulandelana kokumnyama embonini yezindiza. Kepha amamajini akhanywa yizindleko ezikhuphukayo kulo lonke ibhodi-kufaka phakathi abasebenzi, uphethiloli nengqalasizinda. Umncintiswano onzima phakathi kwezindiza ugcina isivuno sikhuphuke. Ukwehla kwezentengiselwano emhlabeni wonke kungenzeka kuqhubeke njengoba impi yezohwebo yase-US-China iqinisa. Lokhu kunomthelela omkhulu ebhizinisini lezimpahla, kodwa ithrafikhi yabagibeli nayo ingathinteka njengoba kuqubuka ukungezwani. Izinkampani zezindiza zisazokwenza inzuzo kulo nyaka, kodwa ayikho imali elula yokwenza imali, ”kusho u-Alexandre de Juniac, onguMqondisi Jikelele we-IATA kanye ne-CEO.
Ngo-2019, imbuyiselo yemali etshalwayo etholwe ezinkampanini zezindiza kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-7.4% (yehle isuka ku-7.9% ngo-2018). Ngenkathi lokhu kusadlula izindleko ezijwayelekile zemali (okulinganiselwa ku-7.3%), i-buffer incane kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umsebenzi wokusabalalisa ukuqina kwezezimali kuyo yonke le mboni uhhafu kuphela ophelele ngegebe elikhulu lenzuzo phakathi kokusebenza kwezindiza eNyakatho Melika, eYurophu nase-Asia-Pacific nokusebenza kwalabo abase-Afrika, Latin America nase Middle East.
“Izindaba ezimnandi ukuthi izindiza zezindiza seziwuchithile umjikelezo wokuqhuma okukhulu. Ukwehla kwesimo sokuhweba akusayingeni le mboni enkingeni enkulu. Kepha ngaphansi kwezimo zamanje, impumelelo enkulu yale mboni-ukudala inani labatshalizimali abanamazinga ajwayelekile enzuzo kusengcupheni. Izinkampani zezindiza zisazodala inzuzo kubatshali zimali ngo-2019 ngezimbuyiselo ezingenhla zemali, kodwa kuphela, ”kusho u-de Juniac.
Izindleko:
- Intengo ephezulu kaphethiloli kusuka ku-2018 ($ 71.6 / barrel Brent) izoqhubeka ngo-2019 ngezindleko ezijwayelekile zama- $ 70.00 / umgqomo weBrent kulindeleke. Lokhu kuphakeme ngama-27.5% kune- $ 54.9 / barrel Brent ngo-2017. Izindleko zikaPhethiloli zizobala ama-25% wezindleko zokusebenza (kusuka ku-23.5% ngo-2018).
- Izindleko zamayunithi kaphethiloli kulindeleke ukuthi zikhuphuke ziye kumasenti angama-39.5 ngekhilomitha ngalinye lamathani atholakalayo lisuka kumasenti angama-39.2, ngenxa yomsebenzi ophakeme, ingqalasizinda nezinye izindleko.
- Izindleko sezizonke kulindeleke ukuthi zikhuphuke ngama-7.4% ziye ku- $ 822 billion.
Imali:
- Imali engenayo isiyonke ayihambisani nokukhuphuka kwezindleko. Okwe-2019, inani eliphelele lemali engenayo yama- $ 865 billion kulindeleke (+ 6.5% ku-2018).
Isikhundla:
- Ngemuva kokusebenza okungajwayelekile ngonyaka wezi-2017 (+ 9.7% ukukhula), ukukhula kwezidingo zezimpahla kwehle kwaba ngu-3.4% ngo-2018. Kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngo-2019 kube nemithamo yemithwalo yamathani ayizigidi ezingama-63.1 (amathani ayizigidi ezingama-63.3 ngo-2018) ngenxa yomthelela amanani aphezulu kwezokuhweba.
- Umkhiqizo wezimpahla kulindeleke ukuthi ube muhle ngonyaka we-2019 ngemuva kokuthuthuka okungu-12.3% ngonyaka wezi-2018, njengoba izinto zokulayisha impahla ziwela phambili, futhi nezimo zokufunwa kwempahla ziyancipha.
Umgibeli:
- Ukukhula kwesidingo sabagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi kube namandla kakhulu kunempahla. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi ukukhula kweGDP yomhlaba kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuqine kakhulu kuma-2.7%, yize kuhamba kancane kunango-2018 (3.1%). Ohulumeni kanye namabhange amakhulu baphendule ekukhuleni komnotho okuhamba kancane ngezinqubomgomo ezisekela kakhulu, okunikeza isisekelo ebuthakathakeni bezohwebo. Kepha ukukhula komnotho nemali engenayo yasendlini kusazokhula kancane, ngakho-ke inani labagibeli eliphelele, elilinganiswe kumakhilomitha abagibeli bemali engenayo, kulindeleke ukuthi likhule ngo-5.0% (kwehle kusuka ku-7.4% ngo-2018). Izindiza seziphendulile endaweni yokukhula kancane ngokunquma ukukhuliswa komthamo ziye kuma-4.7% (ASKs).
- Inani eliphelele labagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi lenyuke liye kuma-4.6 billion (lisuka ku-4.4 billion ngo-2018).
- Izithelo zabagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale zifulethi ngo-2019 ngemuva kokuwa ngo-2.1% ngo-2018.
Ukungena kwemali:
- Ukuhamba kwemali kwamahhala, okwenza ukuthi abatshalizimali bakhokhelwe futhi kwehliswe isikweletu, kulindeleke ukuthi kunyamalale embonini ngoba imali evela ekusebenzeni izoncishiswa ngokukhula okufuneka kancane kanye nezindleko eziphakeme. Izilinganiso zezikweletu eziya emholweni, ebeziwele kakhulu ziqala ukukhuphuka futhi.
- Izilinganiso zesilinganiso sokuthola isikweletu sezindiza zezindiza eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika azikho ngaphezu kwamazinga alinganiswe njengebanga lotshalo-mali yi-ejensi yokulinganisa isikweletu, enikela ngezinga elithile lokuphepha uma kwenzeka ukuwohloka kwendawo yebhizinisi. I-Afrika, iMiddle East kanye neLatin America kusenezinga eliphakeme lesikweletu (izikhathi eziyisi-6-7 umholo wonyaka) ezibashiya besengozini yokwethuka kokuhamba kwemali (okungenzeka kakhulu) noma ukukhuphuka kwenzalo.
Izici zobungozi:
- Izingozi ezingezansi zibalulekile. Ukungazinzi kwezepolitiki kanye nokukwazi ukungqubuzana akukwenzeki kahle ukuhamba ngendiza. Okubaluleke nakakhulu ukusabalala kwezinyathelo zokuvikela nokukhula kwezimpi zezohwebo.
- Njengoba impi yezohwebo yase-US-China iya idlondlobala, ubungozi obenzeka ngokushesha embonini yezimpahla ezindizayo esivele isenkingeni. Futhi, ngenkathi ukufunwa komgwaqo wabagibeli kusabambile, umthelela wokwanda kobudlelwano bezohwebo unganciphisa futhi unciphise ukufunwa.
“Ezamabhanoyi zidinga imingcele evuleleke kubantu nokuhweba. Akekho onqobayo ezimpini zezohwebo, izinqubomgomo zokuvikela noma ama-ajenda e-isolationist. Kepha wonke umuntu uyazuza ngokukhula kokuxhuma. Ukuhwebelana kwamazwe omhlaba okubandakanya wonke umuntu kumele kube yindlela eya phambili, ”kusho uDe Juniac.
Roundup yesifunda
Zonke izifunda zilindele ukwehliswa kwenzuzo ngaphandle kweNyakatho Melika kanye neLatin America. Umehluko wesifunda ubalulekile.
ENyakatho Melika abathwali bazoletha ukusebenza kwezezimali okuqine kakhulu ngenzuzo yentela yeposi eyi- $ 15 billion (isuka ku- $ 14.5 billion ngo-2018). Lokho kubonisa inzuzo ephelele engu- $ 14.77 umgibeli ngamunye, okuwukuthuthuka okuphawulekayo kusuka eminyakeni engu-7 ngaphambili ($ 2.3 ngo-2012). Ama-margins we-Net, abikezelwa ku-5.5%, ehle kusuka kumazinga we-2018 ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme kunalezo ebezilindelekile kanye nokukhula okuhamba kancane. Ububi obulinganiselwe kulesi sifunda buxhaswe ukuhlanganiswa, kusiza ekuqiniseni izinto ezithwala umthwalo (umgibeli + wezimpahla) ngaphezu kwama-65%, kanye nama-ancillaries, anciphisa umthelela wezindleko zikaphethiloli eziphakeme, kugcina amandla okuqhekeka kwamapayipi efinyelela kuma-59.5%.
European izindiza zezindiza zizoletha inzuzo ephelele engu- $ 8.1 billion (yehle isuka ku- $ 9.4 billion ngo-2018). Lokho kusho inzuzo ephelele kumgibeli ngamunye ka- $ 6.75 kanye ne-margin net engu-3.7% –yomibili imiphumela yesibili yomkhakha enamandla kunazo zonke, kodwa ingaphansi kwalokho okutholwa ngabathwali baseNyakatho Melika. Izici zomthwalo ophukile ziphakeme kakhulu kuma-70.2%, okubangelwa isivuno esiphansi ngenxa yendawo yokuncintisana evulekile yokuncintisana okukhulu, izindleko eziphezulu zokulawula, kanye nengqalasizinda engasebenzi kahle. Ngo-2019, isibonelo, ukubambezeleka kokuphathwa kwethrafikhi yomoya kuphindwe kabili kuya kumizuzu eyizigidi eziyi-19.1. IYurophu nayo ingesinye sezifunda ezivezwa kakhulu ukuhwebelana okubuthakathaka kwamazwe omhlaba futhi lokhu kulimaze amathuba kulo nyaka.
Asia-Pacific izindiza zezindiza zizoletha inzuzo ephelele engu- $ 6.0 billion (yehle isuka ku- $ 7.7 billion ngo-2018). Lokho kubonisa inzuzo ephelele kumgibeli ngamunye ka- $ 3.51 kanye nomugqa ophelele wama-2.3%. Isifunda sikhombisa ukusebenza okuhluke kakhulu. Ukubalwa kwemali ecishe ibe ngama-40% omgwaqo wezimpahla zomhlaba wonke kwenza lesi sifunda sibonakale kakhulu ebuthakathakeni bezohwebo emhlabeni, futhi lokho, kuhlangene nezindleko zikaphethiloli eziphakeme, kucindezela inzuzo yezifunda.
Ephakathi Ephakathi izindiza zezindiza zizoletha ukulahleka kwensalela okuhlanganisiwe kwe- $ 1.1 billion (okubi kakhulu kunokulahleka kwe- $ 1.0 billion ngo-2018). Lokho kulingana nokulahleka okungu- $ 5.01 kumgibeli ngamunye kanye nomugqa ongemuhle wenetha (-1.9%). Lesi sifunda sibhekane nezingqinamba ezinkulu kule minyaka edlule, kwezamabhizinisi nakwezamabhizinisi. Izinkampani zezindiza lapho zilandela inqubo yokulungisa futhi amashejuli amenyezelwe akhomba ekwehleni okukhulu ekukhuleni kwamandla ngo-2019. Ukusebenza manje sekuthuthuka kepha ukuwohloka kwezamabhizinisi kulindeleke ukuthi kwandise ukulahleka ngo-2019.
Isi-Latin American izindiza zezindiza zizoletha inzuzo ephelele engu- $ 0.2 billion. Lokhu kukhombisa intuthuko elinganiselayo kusuka ekulahlekelweni yizigidigidi ezingama- $ 0.5 ngo-2018, njengoba ukuvuselelwa komnotho waseBrazil kunciphisa amanani aphezulu kawoyela. Ngenzuzo engu- $ 0.50 kumgibeli ngamunye, umkhawulo wenetha wesifunda kulindeleke ukuthi ube ngu-0.4% omncane.
African izindiza zezindiza zizoletha ukulahleka okungama- $ 0.1 billion (okungashintshiwe kusuka ngo-2018), kuqhubeke ukuthambekela okubuthakathaka kuze kube unyaka wesine. Umgibeli ngamunye othwelwe kulindeleke ukuthi abize abathwali $ 1.54, okuholele ku-1.0% wekhasi lenetha. Izici zomthwalo ophukile ziphansi kakhulu, njengoba isivuno siphezulu kancane kunesilinganiso futhi izindleko ziphansi. Kodwa-ke, zimbalwa izindiza zezindiza esifundeni ezikwazi ukufeza izinto ezanele zomthwalo, okube isilinganiso esiphansi emhlabeni jikelele ku-60.7% ngonyaka ka-2018. Kukonke, ukusebenza kwemboni kuyathuthuka, kepha kuhamba kancane.
| Isifunda | Ukukhula Kokufuna (%) | Ukukhula Komthamo (%) | I-Pax Load Factor (%) | Inzuzo Yonke ($ billion) | Inzuzo / Umgibeli ($) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Global | 7.4 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 81.9 | 82.1 | 30.0 | 28.0 | 6.85 | 6.12 |
| i-America esenyakatho | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 83.9 | 84.0 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 14.66 | 14.77 |
| Europe | 7.5 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 84.6 | 84.0 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 8.20 | 6.75 |
| Asia-Pacific | 9.5 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 81.5 | 82.0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 4.74 | 3.51 |
| Emaphakathi Mpumalanga | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 74.5 | 75.5 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -4.46 | -5.01 |
| i-Latin America | 7.0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 81.6 | 82.5 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -1.65 | 0.50 |
| Africa | 6.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 71.5 | 71.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.09 | -1.54 |
Ibhizinisi Lenkululeko
“Ezamabhanoyi ibhizinisi lenkululeko. Kubahambi abayizigidigidi ezingama-4.6 kuyinkululeko yabo yokuhlola, ukwakha ibhizinisi, noma ukuhlangana kabusha nabangane nomndeni. Inzuzo yezomnotho yalokhu yimisebenzi eyizigidi ezingama-65 kanye nokukhulisa ama- $ 2.7 trillion emnothweni womhlaba. Izindiza zikhula ngokuzibophezela ukuhlangabezana nalesi sidingo. Kusukela ngo-2020, isibonelo, imboni izofinyelela ukukhula okungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni. Futhi lokho kusendleleni ebheke enhlosweni enkulu yokunciphisa ukungcola kuya ezingeni lika 2005 ngonyaka ka-2050. Sizimisele ukuletha ukuxhumana okusimeme komhlaba wonke ngezindiza, ”kusho u-de Juniac.
Ezinye izinkomba ezibalulekile zamandla wokuxhuma komhlaba zifaka:
- Isilinganiso senkokhelo yokubuyisa imali yango-2019 (ngaphambi kokukhokhiswa okungaphezulu nentela) kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngama- $ 317 (2018 dollars), okungama-61% ngaphansi kwamazinga ka-1998 ngemuva kokulungisa ukwehla kwamandla emali. Kubuye kube $ 10 ephansi kunango-2018 ngamagama angempela.
- Amanani emithwalo yempahla emaphakathi ngonyaka we-2019 kulindeleke ukuthi abe ngu- $ 1.86 / kg (amadola ka-2018) okuwukwehla okungama-62% emazingeni ka-1998.
- Inani lemizila ehlinzekwa yizindiza kulindeleke ukuthi likhule libe ngaphezu kuka-58,000 ngo-2019, lisuka ku-52,000 ngo-2014.
- Imali esetshenzisiwe emhlabeni wonke kwezokuvakasha enikwe amandla yizinto zokuhamba emoyeni kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-7.8% ngo-2019 ifike ku- $ 909 billion.
- Izinkampani zezindiza kulindeleke ukuthi zilethe izindiza ezintsha ezingaphezu kuka-1,770 ngo-2019, eziningi zazo ezizongena esikhundleni sezindiza ezindala nezingabizi kakhulu uphethiloli. Lokhu kuzokwandisa imikhumbi yezentengiselwano yomhlaba wonke ngama-3.67% kuya ezindizeni ezingaphezu kwama-30,697. Lokhu kuzosiza ekuthuthukiseni ukonga uphethiloli ngo-1.7% kuya ku-22.4 wamalitha / 100 akhona amathani amakhilomitha.
LOKHO ONGAKUTHATHE KULESI SIHLOKO:
- Moreover, the job of spreading financial resilience throughout the industry is only half complete with a major gap in profitability between the performance of airlines in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific and the performance of those in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.
- Free cash flow, which enables investors to be paid and debt to be reduced, is expected to disappear at the industry level because cash from operations will be reduced….
- In 2019, the return on invested capital earned from airlines is expected to be 7.
