Izinkampani zezindiza ziyakhuthazeka

Abantu bandiza ngamanani amakhulu kakhulu. Nokho, ingabe kukhona abashayeli bezindiza abanele kanye nabasebenzi bezindiza ukuze baphathe ukwethulwa kabusha okulindelekile kwemboni yezokundiza?

I-International Air Transport Association (IATA) icabanga kanjalo. Inhlangano yezindiza enamalungu ezindiza emhlabeni wonke imemezele ukuthuthukisa umbono wayo wokusebenza kwezimali kwemboni yezindiza ka-2022

Lokhu kuza kanye nokululama enhlekeleleni ye-COVID-19.

Ukubikezela kwe-IATA kuvezwe esitatimendeni sabezindaba esikhishwe namuhla:

• Ukulahlekelwa yizimboni kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kube ku-$9.7 billion (okuthuthukisiwe kusukela esibikezelweni sika-Okthoba 2021 ngokulahleka kwezigidigidi ezingama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11.6) ngenzuzo yokulahlekelwa eyingqikithi engu- -1.2%. Lokho ukuthuthuka okukhulu kusuka ekulahlekeni kwezigidigidi ezingama- $ 137.7 (-36.0% yemali yengqikithi) ngo-2020 kanye nama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-42.1 (-8.3%) ngo-2021.
   
• Inzuzo yomkhakha wonke ngo-2023 ibonakala ifinyeleleka lapho iNyakatho Melika isivele kulindeleke ukuthi ilethe inzuzo eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-8.8 ngo-2022.
   
• Izinzuzo ezisebenza kahle kanye nokuthuthukisa isivuno kusiza izinkampani zezindiza ukuthi zehlise ukulahlekelwa ngisho nabasebenzi abakhuphukayo nezindleko zikaphethiloli (lokhu kwakamuva kuqhutshwa ukwenyuka kuka-+40% wentengo kawoyela emhlabeni kanye nokukhula kokuqhekeka okusakazekile kulo nyaka).
   
• Ithemba lemboni nokuzibophezela ekwehliseni intuthu engcolisayo kubonakala ekulethweni kwensalela yezindiza ezingaphezu kwe-1,200 ngo-2022.
   
• Isidingo esinamandla sokulinda, ukuphakanyiswa kwemikhawulo yokuhamba ezimakethe eziningi, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi emazweni amaningi, kanye nokonga komuntu siqu okwandisiwe kukhulisa ukuvela kabusha kwesidingo esizobona izinombolo zabagibeli zifinyelela ku-83% wamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane ngo-2022.
   
• Naphezu kwezinselelo zomnotho, umthamo wezimpahla kulindeleke ukuthi uqophe irekhodi eliphezulu lamathani ayizigidi ezingama-68.4 ngo-2022.

“Izinkampani zezindiza ziyakwazi ukumelana nezimo. Abantu bandiza ngamanani amakhulu kakhulu. Futhi imithwalo yenza kahle uma kunesimo esikhulayo sokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho. Ukulahlekelwa kuzokwehliswa kube ku-$9.7 billion kulo nyaka kanti inzuzo isizofika ku-2023. Yisikhathi sokuba nethemba, noma ngabe kusenezinselelo ezindlekweni, ikakhulukazi uphethiloli, kanye neminye imikhawulo eqhubekayo ezimakethe ezimbalwa ezibalulekile," kusho uWillie. Walsh, uMqondisi-Jikelele we-IATA.

Imali engenayo iyakhuphuka njengoba imikhawulo ye-COVID-19 iya iba lula futhi abantu babuyela ukuzohamba. Inselelo ka-2022 ukugcina izindleko zilawulwa.

“Ukwehla kokulahlekelwa wumphumela wokusebenza kanzima ukugcina izindleko zilawulwa njengoba imboni ikhula. Ukuthuthukiswa kwesimo sezimali kuvela ekubambeni izindleko kuye phezulu ngamaphesenti angama-44 kanti imali engenayo inyuke ngo-55%. Njengoba imboni ibuyela emazingeni ajwayelekile okukhiqiza kanye nezindleko zikaphethiloli eziphakeme ezingase zihlale isikhashana, inzuzo izoncika ekulawuleni izindleko okuqhubekayo. Futhi lokho kuhlanganisa i-value chain. Abahlinzeki bethu, okuhlanganisa izikhumulo zezindiza nabahlinzeki benkonzo yokuhamba emoyeni, kudingeka bagxile ekulawuleni izindleko njengamakhasimende abo ukuze basekele ukusimama kwemboni,” kusho uWalsh.

Imali engenayo yemboni kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$782 billion (+54.5% ngo-2021), 93.3% wamazinga ka-2019. Izindiza ezisetshenziswe ngo-2022 kulindeleke ukuthi zibe izigidi ezingu-33.8, okungama-86.9% wamazinga ka-2019 (izindiza eziyizigidi ezingu-38.9).

• Imali engenayo yabagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi zihlanganise ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-498 wemali engenayo yemboni, ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kwezigidigidi ezingama-239 zamaRandi akhiqizwa ngo-2021. Izinombolo zabagibeli ezihleliwe kulindeleke ukuthi zifinyelele ku-3.8 bhiliyoni, kanti imali engenayo yamakhilomitha abagibeli (RPKs) ikhula ngo-97.6% uma iqhathaniswa no-2021, ifinyelela ku-82.4% ka-2019 traffic. Njengoba kukhishwa isidingo se-pent-up ngokuncipha kwemikhawulo yokuhamba, isivuno kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke ngo-5.6%. Lokho kulandela ukuvela kwesivuno esingu--9.1% ngo-2020 kanye no-+3.8% ngo-2021.
   
• Imali engenayo yezimpahla kulindeleke ukuthi zihlanganise ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-191 wemali engenayo yemboni. Lokho kwehle kancane ukusuka ku-$204 billion eyaqoshwa ngo-2021, kodwa icishe iphindeke kabili imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-100 ezuzwe ngo-2019. Sekukonke, imboni kulindeleke ukuthi ithwale amathani wempahla angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-68 ngo-2022, okuyirekhodi eliphezulu. Njengoba isimo sokuhweba sithamba kancane, ukuvunwa kwempahla kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngo-10.4% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021. Lokho kubuyisela kancane ukukhuphuka kwesivuno ngo-52.5% ngo-2020 kanye no-24.2% ngo-2021.

Izindleko sezizonke kulindeleke ukuthi zikhuphuke zifinyelele ku-$796 billion. Lokho ukukhuphuka okungama-44% ngo-2021, okubonisa kokubili izindleko zokusekela imisebenzi emikhulu kanye nezindleko zokwehla kwamandla emali kwezinye izinto ezibalulekile.

• Fuel: Ku-$192 billion, uphethiloli uyinto ebiza kakhulu embonini ngo-2022 (u-24% wezindleko zizonke, zisuka ku-19% ngo-2021). Lokhu kusekelwe enanini eliyisilinganiso elilindelekile le-Brent crude engu-$101.2/umphongolo kanye no-$125.5 kaphalafini wendiza. Izinkampani zezindiza kulindeleke ukuthi zidle amalitha kaphethiloli angama-321billion ngo-2022 uma kuqhathaniswa namalitha ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-359 asetshenziswe ngo-2019.
  
  Impi e-Ukraine igcina izintengo zikawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent ziphezulu. Noma kunjalo, uphethiloli uzobiza cishe ingxenye yesine yezindleko ngo-2022. Isici esithile semakethe kaphethiloli yalo nyaka ukusabalala okukhulu phakathi kwentengo kaphethiloli ongahluziwe kanye nowejethi. Lokhu kusakazeka kwe-jet crack kusalokhu kungaphezu kwezinkambiso zomlando, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yemikhawulo yamandla ezindaweni zokuhluza. Ukungatshalwa kwezimali okuncane kule ndawo kungase kusho ukuthi ukusabalala kuhlale kuphakeme ku-2023. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amanani aphezulu kawoyela nophethiloli angase abone izinkampani zezindiza zithuthukisa ukusebenza kwazo kahle kukaphethiloli—kokubili ngokusebenzisa izindiza ezisebenza kahle kakhulu nangokuthatha izinqumo zokusebenza.
   
• Labor: Abasebenzi yinto yesibili ephezulu yezindleko zokusebenza zezinkampani zezindiza. Ukuqashwa okuqondile kulo mkhakha kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ezigidini ezingu-2.7, kunyuke ku-4.3% ngo-2021 njengoba imboni iphinde yakha kusukela ekwehleni okukhulu komsebenzi ngo-2020. Nokho, ukuqashwa kusengaphansi kwezigidi ezingu-2.93 zemisebenzi ngo-2019 futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ngaphansi. leli zinga isikhathi esithile. Izindleko zabasebenzi kulindeleke ukuthi zibe amasenti angu-12.2/ikhilomitha elitholakalayo lethani (ATK) ngo-2022, okubuyele kumazinga ka-2019 lapho bekungu-12.3 cents/ATK.
  
  Isikhathi esidingekayo sokuqasha, ukuqeqesha, ukuqedela ukuphepha/ukuhlolwa kwesizinda, kanye nokwenza ezinye izinqubo ezidingekayo ngaphambi kokuthi abasebenzi “balungele umsebenzi” kuveza inselele embonini ngo-2022. Kwezinye izimo, ukubambezeleka kokuqashwa kungase kusebenze njengesithiyo ikhono lenkampani yezindiza ukuhlangabezana nesidingo sabagibeli.
  
  Emazweni lapho ukusimama komnotho ngenxa yalolu bhubhane kuye kwashesha futhi nezinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi liphansi, izimakethe zabasebenzi eziqinile kanye nokushoda kwamakhono kungenzeka kube nomthelela ekwenyukeni kwengcindezi yamaholo. Imali yamaholo embonini kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$173 billion ngo-2022, ikhuphuke ngo-7.9% ngo-2021, futhi ingafani nokunyuka kwemisebenzi ngo-4.3%.

Izinto Ezinkulu Zomnotho

Isizinda somnotho omkhulu womhlaba sibalulekile ekubukeni kwemboni. Isibikezelo sihlanganisa ukuqagela kokukhula okuqinile kwe-GDP yomhlaba wonke okungama-3.4% ngo-2022, kwehle kusukela ku-5.8% okuphinde kwakhiwe ngonyaka odlule. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphukile futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuphezulu ngo-2022, kuyehla phakathi no-2023. Futhi, nakuba amanani enzalo akhuphukayo, amanani enzalo angempela kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale ephansi noma engemihle isikhathi esizinzile.

Izingozi Zezingozi

Kunezici ezimbalwa zobungozi ezihlobene nalo mbono.

Impi e-Ukraine

Umthelela wempi yase-Ukraine ezindizeni uyancipha uma kuqhathaniswa nenhlekelele yokusiza abantu. Umbono uthatha ukuthi impi yase-Ukraine ngeke idlulele ngale kwemingcele yayo. Phakathi kwemithelela eminingi engemihle yokwenyuka kwendiza, ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zikaphethiloli kanye nesidingo esinciphayo ngenxa yokuncipha kwemizwa yabathengi kungaba okubalulekile.

• Passenger: Kuhlanganiswe, imakethe yamazwe ngamazwe yase-Russian, i-Ukraine, iBelarus, ne-Moldova ibe ngu-2.3% wethrafikhi yomhlaba wonke ngo-2021. Ngaphezu kwalokho, cishe u-7% wethrafikhi yabagibeli bamazwe ngamazwe (RPK) ngokuvamile uzodlula i-Russian airspace (idatha ka-2021), okuyimanje ivaliwe kubasebenzisi abaningi, ikakhulukazi emizileni edonsa isikhathi eside phakathi kwe-Asia neYurophu noma iNyakatho Melika. Kunezindleko eziphakeme kakhulu zokuqondisa kabusha lezo zinkampani zenethiwekhi ezithintekile.
   
• cargo: Ngaphansi kancane kuka-1% wethrafikhi yempahla yomhlaba wonke eqhamuka noma idluliswa e-Russia nase-Ukraine. Umthelela omkhulu usendaweni ekhethekile yezimpahla ezinesisindo esisindayo lapho iRussia ne-Ukraine ingabaholi bemakethe, futhi ukulahlekelwa kwamandla okuhambisanayo kuzoba nzima ukukubuyisela. Futhi cishe u-19% wezimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe (CTKs) zihamba nge-Russian airspace (idatha yango-2021). Izinkampani zenethiwekhi ezithintwe unswinyo zibhekene nezindleko eziphakeme zokuphinda kuhanjiswe umzila.

I-Inflation, Izilinganiso Zenzalo, kanye Nezinga Lokushintshanisa

Izinga lenzalo liyakhuphuka njengoba amabhange amakhulu elwa nokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngaphandle kwalabo abathwele izikweletu (abazobona ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehlisa izinga lezikweletu zabo), ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyingozi futhi kunomphumela wezomnotho owohlozayo wentela ngokunciphisa amandla okuthenga. Kukhona ingozi embi kulo mbono uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuqhubeka nokukhuphuka, futhi amabhange amakhulu aqhubeke nokukhuphula izinga lenzalo.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, amandla okurekhoda edola laseMelika, uma eqhubeka, azoba nomthelela omubi njengoba idola laseMelika eliqinile likhula liyancipha ngokujwayelekile. Yenyusa intengo yohlobo lwemali yasendaweni yaso sonke isikweletu se-USD futhi yengeza emthwalweni wokukhokhela nokuthengwa kukaphethiloli kwe-USD.

Covid-19

Isidingo esiyisisekelo sokuhamba sinamandla. Kepha izimpendulo zikahulumeni ku-COVID-19 azisinakanga iseluleko seWorld Health Organisation sokuthi ukuvalwa kwemingcele akuyona indlela esebenzayo yokulawula ukusabalala kwegciwane. Umbono ucabanga ukuthi ukungavikeleki kwabantu okuqinile nokukhulayo ku-COVID-19 kusho ukuthi ngeke kube nokuphindwa kwalawa maphutha enqubomgomo. Kukhona, nokho, ubungozi obungahle bube phansi uma ohulumeni bebuyela ezimpendulweni zokuvala imingcele zokuvala umngcele ekuqubukeni okuzayo.

“Ohulumeni kumele ngabe bafunde izifundo zabo kule nkinga ye-COVID-19. Ukuvalwa kwemingcele kudala ubuhlungu bezomnotho kodwa kulethwa okuncane mayelana nokulawula ukusabalala kwaleli gciwane. Ngamazinga aphezulu okugonywa kwesibalo sabantu, izindlela zokwelashwa ezithuthukisiwe, nezinqubo zokugada, ubungozi be-COVID-19 bungalawuleka. Njengamanje, azikho izimo lapho izindleko zomuntu nezomnotho zokuvalwa kwemingcele ye-COVID-19 zingathethelelwa, ”kusho uWalsh.

China

Imakethe yasekhaya yaseChina iyodwa yabalelwa ku-10% wethrafikhi yomhlaba wonke ngo-2019. Lo mbono uthatha ukwehliswa kancane kancane kwemikhawulo ye-COVID-19 engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022. Ukusuka kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kunqubomgomo yaseChina ye-zero COVID, vele, kungathuthukisa umbono. okwemboni. Ukuqaliswa kokusebenza isikhathi eside kwenqubomgomo ye-COVID-19 kuzoqhubeka nokucindezela imakethe yasekhaya yesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni futhi kudale umonakalo omkhulu ngamaketanga okuhlinzeka emhlabeni jikelele.

3. Ukujikeleza Kwesifunda

Ukusebenza kwezezimali kuzo zonke izifunda kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke ngo-2022 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021 (zonke izifunda zaba ngcono ngo-2021 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2020 futhi).

INyakatho Melika kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokuba yisifunda esenza kahle kakhulu futhi okuwukuphela kwesifunda esizobuyela enzuzweni ngo-2022. Isekelwa imakethe enkulu yasekhaya yase-US kanye nokuvulwa kabusha kwezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe, okuhlanganisa neNyakatho ye-Atlantic, inzuzo yonke ibikezelwa ukuthi U-$8.8 billion ngo-2022. Isidingo (RPKs) kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-95.0% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele (2019), kanye namandla angu-99.5%.

EYurophu: EYurophu, impi yaseRussia-Ukraine izoqhubeka nokuphazamisa amaphethini okuhamba phakathi kweYurophu naphakathi kweYurophu ne-Asia-Pacific. Kodwa-ke, le mpi akulindelekile ukuthi iphazamise ukululama kohambo, isifunda sisondela enzuzweni ngo-2022, ngokulahleka okuphelele okubikezelwe ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-3.9. Isidingo (ama-RPK) kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-82.7% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele (2019), kanye nomthamo ongu-90.0%.

Ezindizeni zezindiza zase-Asia-Pacific, imikhawulo eqinile nehlala njalo yokuhamba (ikakhulukazi e-China), kanye nokukhishwa kokugoma okungalingani, kubone isifunda sibambezeleka ekululameni kuze kube manje. Njengoba imikhawulo iyancipha, isidingo sokuhamba kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngokushesha. Ingqikithi yokulahlekelwa ngo-2022 ibikezelwa ukuthi izokwehla iye ku-$8.9 billion. Isidingo (ama-RPK) kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-73.7% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele (2019), kanye namandla ku-81.5%.

Amanani ethrafikhi eLatin America alulama kakhulu ngo-2021, esekelwa izimakethe zasekhaya kanye nemikhawulo embalwa yokuhamba emazweni amaningi. Umbono wezezimali wezinye izinkampani zezindiza, nokho, usalokhu untekenteke futhi isifunda kulindeleke ukuthi siqophe ukulahlekelwa okuphelele kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.2 kulo nyaka. I-Demand (RPKs) kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-94.2% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele (2019), kanye namandla ku-93.2%.EMpumalanga Ephakathi, ukuvulwa kabusha kwalo nyaka kwemizila yamazwe ngamazwe kanye nezindiza ezithatha uhambo olude, ikakhulukazi, kuzohlinzeka ukukhuthaza kwabaningi. Kuso sonke isifunda, ukulahleka okuphelele kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kuye ku- $1.9 billion ngo-2022, kusuka ekulahlekeni kwama- $ 4.7 billion ngonyaka odlule. Isidingo (ama-RPK) kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-79.1% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele (2019), kanye namandla ku-80.5%.

In Africa, amanani aphansi okugoma adambise ukutholakala kwezindawo zokuhamba ngendiza kuze kube manje. Kodwa-ke, kungenzeka ukuthi kukhona okubambekayo kulo nyaka, okuzoba nomthelela ekwenzeni ngcono ukusebenza kwezimali. Ingqikithi yokulahlekelwa kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-$0.7 billion ngo-2022. Isidingo (RPKs) kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-72.0% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele (2019), kanye nomthamo ongu-75.2%.