Kuhlaziyiwe umthelela Embonini Yezokuvakasha Nezokuvakasha yase-US: Ungayikhokha kanjani i-COVID-19?

Namuhla uMongameli waseMelika uTrump uthe izindleko zokuvala imboni yezokuvakasha nezokuvakasha yaseMelika (amahhotela, izindawo zokudlela, izindiza) cishe zingama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-30 ngenyanga, futhi uhulumeni ulungiselela ukukhokhela ukulahleka. Umongameli uveze ukuthi akulona iphutha lomnikazi wehhotela noma lokudlela, ukuthi izivakashi azisabonakali. "Uhulumeni uyekile", kusho uMongameli Trump.

Ukuhlaziywa okusha okukhishwe ngoLwesibili ngamaphrojekthi we-US Travel Association anciphise ukuhamba ngenxa ye-coronavirus kuzongenisa imali engamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-809 emnothweni wase-US futhi kuqede imisebenzi yaseMelika ehlobene nokuhamba eyizigidi ezingama-4.6 kulo nyaka. Umholo ngoMashi nango-Ephreli uzoba ngama-75% ngaphansi kokujwayelekile.

Izinombolo zomthelela omubi, ezilungiselelwe i-US Travel Association yi-Tourism Economics, zethulwe nguMongameli we-US Travel Association kanye ne-CEO uRoger Dow emhlanganweni wangoLwesibili eWhite House noMongameli Trump, iSekela likaMongameli uPence, uNobhala Wezebhizinisi uWilbur Ross, nabanye abaholi bezokuvakasha.

"Isimo esibucayi sezempilo sithathe ukunakekelwa komphakathi nohulumeni, kodwa inhlekelele evelayo yabaqashi nabasebenzi isivele ikhona futhi izoba yimbi kakhulu," kusho uDow ngoLwesibili. “Amabhizinisi ahlobene nezokuvakasha aqasha abantu baseMelika abayizigidi ezingu-15.8, futhi uma bengenayo imali yokukhanyisa izibani zabo, abakwazi ukukhokhela abasebenzi babo. Ngaphandle kwezinyathelo ezinodlame nezisheshayo zokusiza ezinhlekeleleni, isigaba sokululama sizoba side kakhulu futhi sibe nzima kakhulu, futhi amazinga aphansi esiteji sezomnotho azozizwa kabi kakhulu. ”

UDow uqaphele ukuthi ama-83% abaqashi bezokuvakasha bangamabhizinisi amancane.

Okunye okutholakele ekuhlaziyweni komthelela wokuhamba:

• Isamba semali esetshenziswayo ekuhambeni e-US— ezokuthutha, indawo yokuhlala, ezokudayisa, ezikhangayo nezindawo zokudlela - kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngama- $ 355 billion ngonyaka, noma ama-31%. Lokho kungaphezu kokuphindwe kasithupha umthelela we-9/11.
• Ukulahlekelwa okulinganiselwe okwenziwa yimboni yezokuvakasha kukodwa kunzima ngokwanele ukusunduza i-US ekuweni komnotho okuqhubekayo - okulindeleke ukuthi ihlale okungenani izingxenye ezintathu kwezine, i-Q2 2020 iyindawo ephansi.
• Imisebenzi elahlekile eyizigidi ezingama-4.6 ephathelene nokuhamba ebizolahleka, iyodwa, icishe iliphinde kabili inani labantu abangasebenzi e-US (3.5% kuye ku-6.3%).

"Lesi simo asikaze senzeke," kusho uDow. "Ngenxa yezempilo yomnotho wesikhathi eside, abaqashi nabasebenzi badinga ukukhululeka manje kule nhlekelele edalwe yizimo abebengalawuleki ngokuphelele kuzo."

Emhlanganweni wangoLwesibili eWhite House, uDow unxuse abaphathi ukuthi babheke u- $ 150 billion ukukhulula umkhakha obanzi wezokuvakasha. Phakathi kwezinqubo eziphakanyisiwe:

• Sungula iSikhwama Sokuqinisa Abasebenzi beTravel
• Nikeza nge-Emergency Liquidity Facility yamabhizinisi okuvakasha
• Lungiselela futhi uguqule izinhlelo zokubolekwa kwe-SBA ukusekela amabhizinisi amancane kanye nabasebenzi bawo.

I-Oxford Economics, ngokubambisana nenkampani yayo engaphansi kweTourism Economics, ilingise ukwehla okulindelekile embonini yezokuvakasha yase-US ngo-2020 ngenxa yeCoronavirus. Sibe sesilungisa imithelela yezomnotho yalokhu kulahleka kwemboni yezokuvakasha ngokwe-GDP, ukungasebenzi, kanye nentela.

Ukulahleka Kwemboni Yezokuvakasha Kwehliswe ukwehla kwama-31% unyaka wonke.

Lokhu kufaka ukwehla kwemali engama-75% ezinyangeni ezimbili ezizayo nokulahleka okuqhubekayo onyakeni wonke kufinyelela ku- $ 355 billion. Ukulahleka kwe-GDP Ukulahleka kwemboni yezokuvakasha kuzoholela kumthelela wokuqoqeka we-GDP wama- $ 450 billion ngo-2020.

Sikhankasela umnotho wase-US ukuthi ungene esimweni somnotho esidonse isikhathi eside ngokususelwa ekwehleni okulindelekile ekuhambeni wedwa. Ukwehla kwamandla omnotho kungenzeka kuhlale okungenani amakota amathathu nephuzu eliphansi kakhulu kwikota yesibili yonyaka we-2020. Ukulahleka Kwentela Ukwehla kwemali engamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-55 kuzotholakala ngenxa yokwehla kokuhamba ngo-2020.

Ukulahleka Kwezomsebenzi Kulindeleke ukuthi umnotho waseMelika ulahlekelwe yimisebenzi eyizigidi ezingama-4.6 ngenxa yokwehla kwezokuvakasha ngonyaka wezi-2020. Izinga lokungasebenzi kwabantu elingu-3.5% ngoFebhuwari lizokhuphuka kakhulu ezinyangeni ezizayo. Ukulahleka kwemisebenzi okuhlobene nokuhamba kukodwa kuzosunduza izinga lokungasebenzi lifike ku-6.3% ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo.

Ithuba Lesikhathi Ithuba elikhulu kakhulu lokunciphisa lokhu kulahleka ukunciphisa isikhathi esidingekayo sokululama.

Ngenkathi izikhathi ezijwayelekile zokululama kusuka ezinkingeni ezihlobene nezifo zisukela ezinyangeni eziyi-12-16, lokhu kungancishiswa ngokukhushulwa ngamasu nokwesekwa kwemboni yezokuvakasha. Sihlaziye izimo ezimbili zokunciphisa isikhathi sokulahleka.

ISENZO 1: UKULULAMA OKUGCWELE KUQALA NGOJUNI Isimo sithatha ukuthi ukululama okugcwele kutholakala ngoJuni.

Inyanga ngayinye kusuka ngoJuni-Disemba inikeza inzuzo engaba khona emaphakathi engama- $ 17.8 billion ku-GDP kanye ne- $ 2.2 billion yentela. Izinzuzo eziphelele zizohlanganisa imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama- $ 100 embonini yezokuvakasha, intela engamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-15, nemisebenzi ebuyiselwe eyi-1.6 million. ISENZO 2: 50% UKUTHOLA KOKUQALISEKA KUQALA NGOJUNI Isimo sithatha ukuthi ukululama kusheshiswa ngama-50% (uma kuqhathaniswa nokusebenza okulindelekile) kuqala ngoJuni. Kulesi simo, inyanga ngayinye inikeza inzuzo engaba khona engu- $ 8.9 billion ku-GDP kanye ne- $ 1.1 billion yentela.

Izinzuzo eziphelele zizohlanganisa imali engama- $ 50 billion embonini yezokuvakasha, intela engamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-7.7, nemisebenzi ebuyiselwe engama-823,000