USarkozy: Ukuvumela iGreece ku-Eurozone kube yiphutha

E-NEW YORK - Ekugcineni, abaholi base-Europe bathathe igxathu elibalulekile eliya phambili emgwaqeni omude wokuxazulula inkinga yezikweletu ze-eurozone.

Kodwa imininingwane eminingi ayikacaci futhi osomnotho sebevele bephakamisa imibuzo mayelana nokusebenza kohlelo lwakamuva.

"Impela sesihambe igxathu eliya endaweni efanele," kusho uGuntram Wolff, isekela lomqondisi wethangi labacabangi elizinze eBrussels uBruegel. "Kodwa lokhu akusona isiphetho sendaba."

Engxoxweni ebukhoma kumabonakude eParis ngoLwesine, uMengameli waseFrance uNicolas Sarkozy uthe kwakuyiphutha ukwamukela iGrisi ku-euro ngo-2001.

“Asicacise; kube yiphutha,” kusho uSarkozy kumabonakude waseFrance. “IGreece ingene ku-Euro nezinombolo ezingamanga futhi umnotho wayo wawungakulungele ukuthatha ukuhlanganiswa ne-Eurozone. Kube yisinqumo esathathwa, ngikholwa wukuthi, ngo-2001, manje sesikhokha umphumela.”

Lolu hlelo, ukuthuthukiswa kwalo osekuqhubeke izinyanga ezimakethe, luhlanganisa ukwehla ngo-50% kwenani elibhekene nalo lamabhondi kahulumeni waseGreece, izinyathelo zokukhuphula imali egcina imali yasebhange kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenzisa isikhwama sokuhlenga esesivele sinwetshiwe.

Inhloso ukuvikela ukuzinza kwemali ye-euro ngokuvimbela inkinga yezikweletu eGreece ukuthi ingangeni emithonjeni emikhulu yezomnotho, njenge-Italy.

Abatshalizimali basamukele lesi sivumelwano, kodwa abahlaziyi bathi impendulo yokuqala “yokushesha ushukela” ingaba yesikhashana.

"Lokhu kwandisa ubungozi bokudumazeka, uma iqiniso lesivumelwano selingenile," kusho uNatascha Gewaltig, isikhulu sezomnotho saseYurophu kwa-Action Economics eLondon.

ngo-2001, ngikholelwa ukuthi manje sesikhokha umphumela wawo."

Ingabe iGreece isiphumile ehlathini?

IGreece njengamanje icindezelwe umthwalo wezikweletu olingana no-160% womnotho wayo wonke.

Ngaphansi kwesivumelwano esilwe kanzima nabanikazi bamabhondi, uhulumeni waseGreece uzokwehliswa leso sibalo sezikweletu sifinyelele ku-120% womphumela wezomnotho kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.

"Ngisho noma abatshalizimali belubhalisela ngokugcwele lolu hlelo, lokhu kusezoba yizinga eliphezulu lesikweletu ngendlela engafanele," kusho uJonathan Loynes, oyisikhulu sezomnotho saseYurophu kwaCapital Economics. “Ngakho-ke, ukuhlelwa kabusha okwengeziwe kwamaGreki noma okuzenzakalelayo kubonakala kungenzeka kakhulu esikhathini esizayo.”

I-Institute of International Finance, emele amabhange ezinkampani ezizimele kanye nabatshalizimali abaphethe amabhondi aseGreece, basayine isivumelwano ngemuva kokuthi abaholi be-EU bevumelene ngokuhlinzeka nge-'sweetener' yama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-30.

Ngaphandle kwesivumelwano sonke, izici ezithile zobuchwepheshe zokubhalwa phansi zisalindile.

UCharles Dallara uthe lesi sikhungo sibheke ngabomvu ukuphothula “isivumelwano sikakhonkolo” ngesaphulelo sesikweletu saseGreece.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, iphakethe lokuhlenga liphinde lifune ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-100 wemali yebheyili yaseGreece ezosekelwa amazwe e-EU kanye ne-International Monetary Fund. Kubandakanya umnikelo wama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-30 esivumelwaneni nabanikazi bebhondi, ithebhu ephelele yebheyili yaseGreece ifika ku-€130 billion.

Lolu hlelo kulindeleke ukuthi lubhekane nezidingo zesizwe zezimali ekupheleni kuka-2014.

Ibheyili yakamuva izokwengeza ephaketheni lokuhlenga lama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-110 elatholwa yiGreece ngonyaka odlule. Imibandela yephakeji yesibili kulindeleke ukuthi kuxoxiswene ngayo ekupheleni kwalo nyaka.

Ingabe uhlelo lwebhange luya kude ngokwanele?

Amabhange aseYurophu kuzodingeka ukuthi abambe izimpahla zekhwalithi ephezulu ezincwadini zawo njengesivikelo ekulahlekelweni okungase kube khona esikweletini esizimele.

Abaholi bavumelene ngokuthi amabhange kufanele akhuphule amazinga emali ye-“core tier one” afike ku-9%, ngemuva kokubala ngokwehla kwenani lamabhondi kahulumeni.

Lokho kusho ukuthi amabhange aseYurophu azodinga ukuqongelela ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-106 ukuze ahlangabezane nezinhloso ezintsha, ngokusho kwe-European Banking Authority.

Uhlelo ngelokuthi amabhange athole uxhaso lukahulumeni kuphela uma engakwazi ukuqongelela imali ngokudayisa impahla noma ukuguqula izikweletu zibe ukulingana.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, isivumelwano se-EU sithi "iziqinisekiso ezikweletini zasebhange" zingadingeka ukusiza amabhange adonsa kanzima ekutholeni uxhaso lwezimali emakethe yoxhaso lwezitolo ezinkulu.

Kepha izazi zezomnotho zithi akukacaci ukuthi ohulumeni be-EU bazozikhokhela kanjani zonke lezi zinyathelo.

“Ukuvuselelwa kwamabhange aseYurophu kuseyisifiso kunokuba kube ngokoqobo,” kusho u-Ian Gordon, umhlaziyi wamabhange e-Evolution Securities eLondon.

Ingabe isikhwama sokuhlenga sizofeza igunya laso?

Abaholi baveze izindlela ezimbili i-European Financial Stability Facility engafinyelela kuma-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-440.

Ngaphansi kwendlela eyodwa, lesi sikhwama sizoqinisekisa ngokwengxenye izindaba ezintsha zamabhondi kahulumeni ukuze kudambise imakethe yezikweletu zase-Italy naseSpain.

"Imininingwane egcwele isalufifi futhi kuzovunyelwana ngayo ezinyangeni ezizayo," kusho uGewaltig. "Kodwa umqondo wukuthi esikhundleni sokukhipha imali, i-EFSF izokhipha iziqinisekiso zokuheha imali ephindwe kane uma kutshalwa imali kumabhondi e-eurozone."

Laba baholi baphinde bavumelana ngokuthi kwakhiwe imoto eyodwa noma ngaphezulu yokutshalwa kwezimali okuyisipesheli ukuze kuhlanganiswe izinsiza zesikhwama nokutshalwa kwezimali kwezinkampani ezizimele. Imali etholwayo ingase isetshenziselwe ukuxhasa ukuvuselelwa kwebhange kanye nokuthenga okwengeziwe kwebhondi.

Umgomo uwukuheha imali evela ezikhwameni zengcebo ezicebile eChina, eRussia nakwamanye amazwe asathuthuka. Kodwa-ke, abahlaziyi bathi isimo sezimoto eziyisipesheli asikaziwa.

Umongameli waseFrance uNicolas Sarkozy utshele uMengameli waseChina u-Hu Jintao ngohlelo lwakamuva lwe-EU lokuhlenga ngoLwesine. U-Hu uyivumile imizamo yabaholi base-Europe kodwa akashongo ukuthi iChina izoba nentshisekelo yokubamba iqhaza.

"Akusiyo intshisekelo yeChina ukuxhasa lolu hlelo," kusho uCarl Weinberg, isazi sezomnotho eHigh Frequency Economics. "Kuncono ukuthi sikubeke eceleni futhi uthenge izimpahla uma usuphelile kunokutshala imali emkhunjini ozikayo."

Kuthiwani nge-Italy?

I-EU iveze izinhlelo zokubeka imithetho eqinile yesabelomali kanye nokukhulisa ukuncintisana kwezomnotho kuyo yonke indawo ye-euro.

Abaholi batuse imizamo yakamuva eyenziwe yi-Italy neSpain yokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali yomphakathi kanye nokunciphisa amazinga esikweletu angalawuleki.

Kepha izazi zezomnotho zithi ukuntengantenga kwezepolitiki e-Italy kuseyisithiyo esikhulu esizweni ukuthi sisebenzise ngempumelelo izinguquko ezithenjisiwe.

I-Italy izibophezele ekukhuphuleni iminyaka yobudala yokuthatha umhlalaphansi iye ku-67 ngo-2026, ngokusho "kwencwadi yenhloso" evela kundunankulu uSilvio Berlusconi.

Inkulumompikiswano ngalolu daba ePhalamende lase-Italy icishe yaphula uhulumeni waseBerlusconi, kanti abenzi bomthetho bafike bagadla ngasekuqaleni kwaleli sonto.

Ikhono likahulumeni wase-Italy lokwenza izinguquko ezibanzi zesakhiwo "liwukhiye wempumelelo yawo wonke umzamo," kusho uWolff kaBruegel.

"Uma i-Italy ingakwazi ukwenza izinguquko ezidingekayo, sizobhekana nezinqumo ezinzima kakhulu endaweni ye-euro," esho.

Ingena kanjani i-ECB?
Indima ezodlalwa yi-European Central Bank emizamweni yokuhlenga eqhubekayo nayo ayaziwa kakhulu.

I-ECB ibithenga amabhondi kahulumeni abiza izigidigidi zama-euro ngaphansi kohlelo oluphuthumayo oluyimpikiswano. Ukuthengwa kwebhondi sekuvele kuholele ekushiyeni emsebenzini kwabamabhange abakhulu baseJalimane abaphikisana nokuthi i-ECB ithathe isikweletu esiyingozi esizimele.

Ngaphansi kwegunya layo elilodwa “lokugcina ukuzinza kwentengo,” i-ECB idingeka ukuthi ilawule ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokuphatha izilinganiso zenzalo. Kodwa leli bhange liphikise ngokuthi ukuthengwa kwamabhondi kuyadingeka ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi lingafeza igunya lalo phakathi kwezimakethe ezingasebenzi.

"Sisekela ngokugcwele i-ECB esenzweni sayo sokugcina ukuqina kwentengo endaweni ye-euro," kusho abaholi be-EU, ngokusho kweziphetho ezivela engqungqutheleni yakamuva.

Kodwa izazi zezomnotho zixwayisa ngokuthi indawo ye-euro idinga umthengi othembekile wesinyathelo sokugcina samabhondi kahulumeni anengcindezi.

“Ngokubona kwethu, indima ezodlalwa yi-ECB noma engeke iyibambe isabalulekile,” kusho uHolger Schmieding, isazi sezomnotho eBerenberg Bank.