UDorian kumkhondo weGrand Bahama, Abacos: Kuthaka kancane iFlorida

Nakuba iningi le-Caribbean lingaphandle kwengozi, i-Bahamas ne-US State of Florida ziqaphe kakhulu. I-Hurricane Dorian isalokhu iyisiphepho esigabeni sesi-4 esibhubhisayo. I-National Hurricane Centre ikhiphe ukuhlolwa kwangoMgqibelo ekuseni ngeSiphepho u-Dorian. ngo-5 AM EST endleleni eya e-Bahamas naseFlorida.

Iningi labavakashi lalikhishiwe eziqhingini ezithintekile zaseBahamas.

Umbiko uthi u-Dorian usaqhubeka nokubukeka emangalisa esithombeni sesathelayithi namhlanje ekuseni, ngendawo elinganayo yamafu abandayo ezungeze iso elibanzi elingu-10-15 n mi. Akuzange kube khona idatha yendiza entsha evela esiphepho kusukela ngeseluleko sokugcina. Kodwa-ke, ukubukeka kwesathelayithi kushintshile kancane kusukela indiza yagcina ukuba nesivunguvungu, futhi izilinganiso ezihlukahlukene zokuzicabangela kanye nezinjongo zesathelayithi zishintshile kancane emahoreni ambalwa edlule. Ngokusekelwe kulokhu, ukuqina kokuqala kuhlala ku-120 kt.

Ukunyakaza kokuqala manje sekungama-290/10. Izinga eliphansi ukuya ezingeni eliphakathi nendawo elisenyakatho yesiphepho kufanele liliqondise entshonalanga-enyakatho-ntshonalanga liye ngasentshonalanga amahora angama-48 noma ngaphezulu, isivinini esiya phambili siya kancane kakhulu njengoba isikhungo sidlula eduze noma phezu kwe-Abacos futhi Grand Bahama. Umhlahlandlela wethrekhi wale ngxenye yethrekhi uhlanganiswe ngokuqinile, futhi ithrekhi entsha yesibikezelo iseduze ne-ECMWF, UKMET, kanye namamodeli okuvumelana alungiswe yi-HCCA. Isibikezelo sethrekhi siba yinkinga kakhulu ngemuva kwamahora angama-48. Amamodeli omhlaba i-NHC evame ukuwasebenzisa, kanye ne-HWRF yesifunda kanye ne-HMON, amamodeli, enze olunye ushintsho oluya empumalanga kuze kufike lapho kungekho khona obikezela ukuthi u-Dorian uzowa eFlorida. Nokho, i

Ukuhlangana kwe-UKMET kusho ukuthi kusaletha isiphepho phezu kwenhlonhlo yaseFlorida, njengoba kwenza amalungu amaningana e-GFS kanye ne-ECMWF ehlanganisiwe. Isibikezelo esisha sengoma samahora angu-72-120 sizoyiswa empumalanga ukuze sihlale empumalanga yogu lwaseFlorida, futhi siphakathi kwesibikezelo esidala namamodeli ahlukahlukene okuvumelana. Ukulungiswa okwengeziwe kuthrekhi yesibikezelo kungase kudingeke kamuva namuhla uma amathrendi amamodeli amanje eqhubeka. Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ithrekhi entsha yesibikezelo ayikuvimbeli ukuthi iDorian ifike ogwini lwaseFlorida, njengoba izingxenye ezinkulu zogu zihlala kuthrekhi yekhoni yokungaqiniseki. Futhi, imithelela ebalulekile ingase ibe khona ngisho noma isikhungo sihlala ngasogwini.

U-Dorian kufanele ahlale endaweni ekahle ngokuvamile ezinsukwini ezi-3-4 ezilandelayo, futhi isiqondiso sokuqina sibonisa ukuthi izohlala iyisiphepho esinamandla ngalesi sikhathi. Isibikezelo esisha sokuqina sidinga ukuqiniswa okwengeziwe namuhla, bese sibonisa ukuncipha kancane okulandela inkomba yokuqina. Ngalesi sikhathi, izinguquko ezinkulu kakhulu zingase zivele emijikelezweni yokushintsha i-eyewall enzima ukubikezela. Ekupheleni kwesikhathi sokubikezela, ukwanda kokugunda okuqondile nokusondela komhlaba kulindeleke ukuthi kubangele ukuba buthaka okuthile.

Imilayezo engukhiye:

1. Inkathi ende yesiphepho esisongela ukuphila kanye neziphepho ezinamandla ezibhubhisayo cishe zisezingxenyeni ezisenyakatho-ntshonalanga yeBahamas, ikakhulukazi eziQhingini zase-Abaco naseGrand Bahama Island. Isixwayiso sesiphepho siyasebenza kulezi zindawo, futhi izakhamuzi kufanele zilalele iseluleko esinikezwa izikhulu eziphuthumayo zendawo futhi ziqedele amalungiselelo azo ayisiphepho namuhla.
2. Ukuhlasela kwesiphepho esisongela ukuphila kanye neziphepho ezinamandla ezibhubhisayo kusengenzeka ezingxenyeni ezithile zogu olusempumalanga yeFlorida ekuqaleni kuze kube maphakathi nesonto elizayo, kodwa njengoba uDorian ebikezelwa ukuthi uzonciphisa ijubane futhi ajike aye enyakatho eduze nogu, kunjalo futhi. maduzane ukunquma ukuthi kuzokwenzeka nini noma kuphi ukuqhuma nemimoya ephakeme kakhulu. Izakhamuzi kufanele zibe nohlelo lwazo lwesiphepho endaweni, zazi ukuthi zisendaweni yokuphuma yisiphepho, futhi zilalele iseluleko esinikezwa izikhulu eziphuthumayo zendawo.
3. Ingozi yomoya onamandla kanye nokukhuphuka kwesiphepho esisongela ukuphila kuyanda ogwini lwaseGeorgia naseNingizimu Carolina phakathi nesonto elizayo. Izakhamizi zakulezo zindawo kufanele ziqhubeke nokuqapha inqubekela phambili yaseDorian.
4. Izimvula ezinamandla, ezikwazi ukuletha izikhukhula ezisongela ukuphila, zilindeleke ezingxenyeni ezithile zeBahamas kanye nezingxenye ezisogwini oluseningizimu-mpumalanga ye-United States kule mpelasonto yonke ingxenye enkulu yesonto elizayo.

ISABELO SEZIMALI KANYE NEMOYA EYI-MAX

INIT 31/0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH

12H 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH

24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH

36H 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

48H 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH

72H 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH

96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH