USolwazi Norbert Walter, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu seDeutsche Bank Group kanye nenhloko yeDeutsche Bank Research, ukhathazekile ngalesi sikhathi. “Lapho izikhathi zibucayi emnothweni wezwe, ngaphandle kwaseRussia, umhlaba awunabo abaholi abathembekile. Lapho umnotho uyinkinga, izinkinga zezenhlalo nendawo ezungezile nazo zibangela inkinga enkulu. Ukubekezelelana kuzo zonke izingxenye zomhlaba kufushane,” usho kanje engqungqutheleni iGlobal Travel and Tourism Summit ebiseDubai.
Amazwe amaningi emhlabeni jikelele awawakhokhi amanani emakethe afanelekile ezimpahla eziyivelakancane ezidala ukwabiwa ngokungafanele kwezinsiza, okungase kugcine kuyinhlekelele yomhlaba wonke.
Ngonyaka wezi-2008 kuze kuphele unyaka, akuwona amandla kuphela kodwa nokudla kuzobiza kakhulu. Njengenye inkinga yezenhlalo, amanani okudla azokwenyuka, okwandisa ukungezwani kwezenhlalo emhlabeni wonke. Udaba olufanayo luzokwenza ukuthi amazwe osekuphele iminyaka enganakiwe abhekwe ngabomvu ngoba yiwo adayisa ukudla emhlabeni. Abahlinzeki bempahla yethusi, insimbi, amaminerali ayigugu, i-pulp / iphepha ngisho nesoya ngeke bacebe kuphela. Eqinisweni, bazoceba kakhulu futhi bazoba nesandla esiphezulu kwezokuvakasha emhlabeni wonke, ngaleyo ndlela babeke inselelo e-US naseYurophu, kwengeza u-Walter.
UChristopher Dickey, isikhulu sehhovisi laseParis kanye nomhleli wesifunda se-Newsweek eMpumalanga Ephakathi, uveze izinkinga zakamuva ezithinta izindawo ezithile. Izibhelu zokudla e-Haiti kanye ne-breadlines e-Cairo, e-Egypt zisanda kuphazamisa ezokuvakasha. “Imboni yezokuvakasha emazweni amaningi asathuthuka isifana ne-enclave tourism - ifaka izivakashi odongeni lapho zingakhululeka khona, kuyilapho wonke umuntu ehlala ngaphandle. Lokhu kuzoba nzima ukukwenza njengoba sibona ukushoda kokudla, amanani entengo kagesi kanye nokuntengantenga kwezepolitiki emazweni okungaba izindawo ezikahle zokuvakasha. Ezokuvakasha kufanele nje zibhekane nobuholi obubi emhlabeni esikhathini esiseduze nesimaphakathi,” usho kanje, wengeza ngokuthi isizathu esenza abaholi bezinkampani ezizimele baqaphele futhi basebenzele ukubhekana nenkinga eqhubekayo yabaholi ababi kwezepolitiki. umhlaba.
“Kuyacaca ukuthi i-Asia iyona ezokhula eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo. I-Latin America, ekhula namuhla ngesivinini esingamaphesenti angu-4 inamandla amakhulu okwenza kangcono. Uma lesi sifunda singahweba kakhulu futhi sivuleleke nasemhlabeni wonke, sizohamba phambili kwezokuvakasha,” kusho uWalter.
Eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, ezinye izinto ezimbalwa zingenzeka ngendlela ephansi. I-US ingase ilulame ekuwohlokeni komnotho kodwa hhayi ngokushesha njengoba iningi lamabhange okutshalwa kwezimali libikezela namuhla. “Lona kanye iqiniso lokuthi i-US isebenzise isabelomali sayo ngokweqile iyaqhubeka nokubeka izimakethe endaweni ethule. Umbuzo osalayo wokuthi ngabe umhlaba wonke uzoqhubeka yini nokuxhasa ngezimali ukusetshenziswa ngokweqile kwe-US noma cha. Phambilini, ukongiwa okuvela e-Asia naseYurophu kwenze i-US yasebenza yize ibisebenzisa imali eningi,” kusho uWalter.
Ngabe inqubomgomo yaseMelika izoyenzani idola laseMelika osomnotho abathi sekuneminyaka ethile lehla? “Ukuthi umhlaba uzoqhubeka nokwamukela imali enciphisa inani layo njengohlobo lwemali ebekiwe noma cha kuwumbuzo omkhulu. IDubai kanye nezifunda zaseGulf sezixoxisana ngalezi zinkinga,” kusho uWalter eqhubeka ethi eminyakeni emibili ezayo, amazwe amaningi azongabaza ukubaluleka kwedola kanye nemali ebekiwe.
Amazwe ahlinzeka ngowoyela negesi namuhla awajabulile neze ngokuthi ngenkathi empompa imithombo eyigugu yezimbiwa phansi futhi esabalalise emhlabeni, athola imali elahlekelwa inani ngobusuku obunye. U-Walter wayeqinile mayelana nomongameli wase-Iranian ecabanga ukubiza uwoyela othunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngezinye zezimali ukuze abalekele isilayidi sedola. Abatshalizimali kanye nabantu ngabanye bazoshintsha iphothifoliyo yabo yokutshalwa kwezimali isuke kudola iye kwezinye izimali zangaphandle.
Kodwa-ke, lesi akusona isikhathi esinjengalapho idola lithatha i-pound sterling. Lesi akusona isikhathi sokuthi uhlobo oluthile lwemali luthathe olunye. Kuzoba neminye iminyaka emibili ngedola eliphansi ngaphambi kokuthi libuye. I-US, njengoba ingumnotho obalulekile, izobuya ngenxa yobuningi bamathalente amasha kanye nemfundo enhle. Idola ngeke liphume emfashinini, esho.
Kusukela namuhla kuya ku-2010/2011, imali engenayo kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okusebenzisana nedola laseMelika kusengcupheni. Amamajini awaphezulu ngokwanele ukumelana nokuguquguquka kwemakethe okumakwe ngezindleko eziphezulu zokudla namandla. Imboni yezokuvakasha yanamuhla ingase ibhekane nabantu asebekhulile abampofu kakhulu ngosuku nesizukulwane esisha esizimisele ukuhamba futhi singase sibe nemali.
UWalter uthe imboni yezokuvakasha namuhla kufanele icabange ngonjiniyela abaningi abaqeqeshiwe abazosebenzisa izinsiza ngobuhlakani futhi bonge amandla nemvelo. “Ngokwesibonelo, eYurophu, abantu bafuna ukubeka uhlaka lokulawula imvelo. Izwe elilodwa alibonakali lenza kanjalo-i-US. Kodwa uma singathanda ukwazi ukuthi yini okufanele siyilindele, kufanele sibheke kuphela ukuthi kuzokwenzekani e-US. Noma ngabe ngubani oba umongameli, i-US izoba izwe elehlukile ngokwemibono yezindaba zemvelo. I-US maduze izohola indlela ebheke ekubhekeni ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, ”kusho uWalter.
Qaphela wanezela, ngeke kusaba yiYurophu noma izwe elilodwa nje elenza ushintsho; kuzoba yibutho elilodwa eliholwa yi-US iyonke okwenza kube nomthelela kumakhodi wokwakha, ukwahlukanisa, ukufaka, ukuthuthukisa imiklamo yezinjini, echaza imithetho yokuhweba nge-carbon kanye ne-carbon emission ebalulekile ezindlekweni, kusho u-Walter.
Izithiyo ziyavela njengoba kuthinta ukukhula kwesibikezelo e-Asia. Ngokwesibonelo, eShayina, ukukhathalela imvelo kuyoba okukhulu kakhulu ikakhulukazi uma kuziwa emigomeni yendawo (umoya wendawo, amanzi nomhlabathi), nakuba kungenjalo mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni wonke. Amazwe akhelene neChina njengeVietnam namazwe afana neBrazil azobhekana nezimo ezivumayo zemakethe ngenxa yokusingatha izinkinga zemvelo.
Njengoba izizwe ezingu-37 zibhekene nezinselelo ekuzinzeni namuhla uma kuziwa ekudleni namandla, indaba esheshayo yangempela (ebaluleke kakhulu kunokushintsha kwesimo sezulu) ubumpofu lapho ukuhamba nokuvakasha kunomthelela emphakathini wendawo. U-Edouard Ettedgui, umphathi weqembu, iMandarin Oriental Hotel Group uthe: “Njengemboni ehlukene enabadlali abaningi abancane, uphakamisa ukuthi ezokuvakasha kufanele ziqale ngokusebenzisana nohulumeni. Izindawo zokudlela ezincane kanye nabasebenzi abancane badinga ukusebenzisana nomphakathi wendawo futhi badinga ukuhlangana kabusha ukuze bakhulume nohulumeni bamadolobha abanombono ocacile, ogxile kakhulu kunezindawo ezinkulu njengezifunda noma izifundazwe. "
Khonamanjalo, abahlinzeki bezinsiza kusebenza eNingizimu Afrika bakhuluma ngokunqanyulwa kukagesi eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo. Ekhuluma ngale nkinga enzima, usihlalo weSouth Africa Tourism kanye nesikhulu esiphezulu seTsogo Sun Holdings, uJabu Mabuza, uthe bakhethe ezweni ukuze baqhubekisele phambili ukukhula komnotho kule minyaka engu-5-7 edlule engxenyeni enkulu yabantu.
“Njengoba kukhinyabeze ingqalasizinda, kwafakwa izindlu ezintsha ezingu-4 million kugridi kagesi okulethe ingcindezi enkulu ekuhlinzekeni kukagesi. Asazi manje ukuthi singayilinganisa kanjani leyo nkinga. Inkampani yethu kagesi ibophezele ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-8.4 ukubhekana nale nkinga ngokucela amabhizinisi kanye nomphakathi jikelele ukuthi ubheke ezinye izindlela zokonga amandla nokukhiqiza ukushisa, ngaphandle kokuthembela kugesi omsulwa. Lona ngumgomo kahulumeni wethu, ohlonze ezokuvakasha njengomthombo wokukhula kanye nokubamba iqhaza elibonakalayo ku-GDP. Kule minyaka emihlanu edlule, kufike izivakashi eziyizigidi ezingama-43. Ezokuvakasha zizozama ukudambisa izinselelo zethu; futhi ukucindezeleka ohlelweni kuncike emandleni okufanele sikhiqize okwengeziwe futhi songe.”
Yize izikhathi zibukeka zinzima ngaphambili, ezokuvakasha zingasiza ekudambiseni izinhlungu ezikhulayo. Izimakethe ezisafufusa nazo zithatha indawo ephambili njengoba zimele ukuhlinzeka umhlaba ngezinto ezidingeka kakhulu. Njengoba isazi somnotho sishilo, bazoceba kakhulu.
