U-2017 unyaka ophawulekayo wezimpahla zomoya - umcimbi uzophela nini?

0a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1-20
0a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1-20

Njengoba izitayela ezinhle ziqhubeka phakathi nonyaka odlule, umbuzo omkhulu wukuthi konke lokhu kuzoqhubeka isikhathi esingakanani.

UZibandlela wezi-2017 ubone ukukhula konyaka nonyaka (YoY) okungama-4.5% kumthamo wezimpahla zomoya emhlabeni wonke. Abanikeli abakhulu kwakuyizifunda zase-Asia Pacific (+8%) naseNyakatho Melika (+5.1%). Ukukhula kwe-Europe kube ngama-2.2% kuphela, kanti impahla yasemoyeni evela e-Afrika yehle ngo-7.5%. I-MESA (Middle East & South Asia) kanye neMelika Ephakathi neseNingizimu ibone ukwanda kwesinyathelo ngesilinganiso somhlaba wonke. Kwakuyi-Europe eyakhula kakhulu njengendawo okuyiwa kuyo (+6.8%). Ukuthuthukiswa kwesivuno, nokho, kudonse ukunaka okukhulu: ukukhiqizwa kwezwe lonke kwenyuke ngo-10% YoY, kukalwa nge-EUR, kanye nenani eliphakeme elingu-23.5% (!) nge-USD. Uma kuqhathaniswa noNovemba, i-USD-isivuno ikhuphuke ngo-2.5%, esinye isici esiphawulekayo, njengoba isivuno ngokuvamile sehla phakathi kukaNovemba noDisemba.

Ngekota yesi-4 iyonke, ukukhula kwevolumu ye-YoY kwaba ngu-6.6%, okuhlaba umxhwele ngoba impahla yomoya - ngemva kweminyaka yokusebenza kabi - iqale ukukhula futhi kusukela ngoSepthemba 2016. Yebo, leli qiniso lenze laba ngaphezulu. 'kunzima' embonini ukurekhoda izibalo eziqinile zokukhula kwevolumu unyaka nonyaka engxenyeni yokugcina ka-2017. Kodwa-ke, lobo bunzima abuzange bume endleleni yokukhulisa imali engenayo yezinkampani zezindiza ku-Q4, njengoba isivuno nge-USD saqala ukukhuphuka. ukukhula ngamaphesenti amadijithi amabili ngokunembile kusukela ngoSepthemba 2017… Ukushoda kwamandla ezimakethe eziningi, ukuguquguquka kwezinga lokuhwebelana kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela konke kube neqhaza ekulibambeni ekukhuleni kwemali engenayo yenkampani yezindiza emhlabeni wonke engaphezu kuka-25% kwikota yokugcina. yonyaka omangalisayo wezimpahla zomoya.

Singabiza ngokuphepha unyaka ka-2017 njengonyaka omuhle kakhulu. Amarekhodi amaningi aphulwa, futhi izimpawu eziningi zazima eluhlaza cishe unyaka wonke. Kodwa-ke, unyaka awuhlukile kweminye iminyaka ngomqondo wokuthi u-2017 wawazi nabaphumelele nabahluliwe: amadolobha omsuka nezindawo okuyiwa kuzo, imikhakha nezinkampani ezakhula, ezinye ezasala ngemuva. Nakhu ukubuka konke kwethu kwezinga eliphezulu le-YoY.

Nakuba impahla evamile inyuke ngo-10.5%, imikhiqizo ethile yempahla ikhule ngo-7.4%, okwenza umthamo ukhule ngo-9.6% (10.8% ku-DTK). Ukuthuthukiswa kwesivuno (ngama-USD) nakho kube kukhudlwana kumpahla evamile (+9.4% vs +5.9%). Izigaba ezikhule kakhulu ngevolumu bekuyi-Vulnerables & High Tech, Pharmaceuticals and Flowers, ebonisa ukukhula kwesivuno se-USD ngo-8%, 5.4% no-1% ngokulandelana.

Abadluliseli be-Top-20 emhlabeni bahlale beyikilabhu ekhethekile, bengavumeli amalungu amasha ukuthi abajoyine: ukukhula kwabo bekuhambisana nokukhula kwemakethe kukonke, nakuba i-Top-5 (DHL Global Forwarding, Kuehe + Nagel, DB Schenker, Expeditors U-Int'l noPanalpina) njengeqembu badlula ozakwabo ngevolumu (+16% vs +14%). I-GSA ihambe kahle kakhulu e-Asia Pacific (+15% ukukhula kwevolumu), i-Europe (+12%) kanye ne-MESA (+11%).

Emadolobheni amakhulu angama-50 amakhulu, amane aqophe ukukhula okungaphezu kwama-20%: iHanoi (ehamba phambili ngama-25.5%), iBrussels, iColombo neHo Chi Minh City. I-Hong Kong yahlala iyimvelaphi yethu ye-Nr 1, ikhula ngo-16%. Kwemisuka ephezulu kwabayi-10, i-Amsterdam ne-Los Angeles yizona ezibonisa ukukhula okungaphansi kancane kunesilinganiso somhlaba wonke. Phakathi kwezindawo ezinkulu okuyiwa kuzo, i-Doha (ehamba phambili ngama-42%), i-Shanghai, i-Osaka, i-Hanoi, i-Mexico City, i-Chennai ne-Campinas zonke zikhulise imiqulu yazo engenayo ngaphezu kwama-20%.

Amasheya ebhizinisi eliphelele lamaqembu ezindiza ngamanye ahlala ezinzile. Okuhlukile? Izinkampani zezindiza ezivela e-Afrika: ngenkathi ibhizinisi elisuka esifundeni sabo lisalele emuva, ukukhula kwazo kukonke bekuphezulu kakhulu kunokukhula okubonakala ngamanye amaqembu. Izinkampani zezindiza ezizinze e-Asia Pacific zikhule zaba ngaphezu kwesilinganiso ngo-2017, kuyilapho izindiza ezizinze e-Europe, eMelika nase-MESA zisalele ngemuva, nokho nje kancane, ngaleyo ndlela zayeka ingxenye encane yesabelo sazo sonke sikaphayi.

Njengoba izitayela ezinhle ziqhubeka phakathi nonyaka odlule, umbuzo omkhulu wukuthi konke lokhu kuzoqhubeka isikhathi esingakanani. Njengoba kubikwa ukuthi uMark Twain wake washo, kunzima ukubikezela, ikakhulukazi ngekusasa…

<

Mayelana umbhali

Isihleli Somsebenzi Oyinhloko

Umhleli Omkhulu Wesabelo ngu-Oleg Siziakov

Yabelana ku...