I-International Air Transport Association (IATA) ilindele ukubuyela enzuzweni embonini yezindiza emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023 njengoba izinkampani zezindiza ziqhubeka nokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa okuvela emiphumeleni yobhubhane lwe-COVID-19 ebhizinisini labo ngo-2022.

Ngo-2023, izinkampani zezindiza kulindeleke ukuthi zithumele inzuzo encane yezigidigidi ezingama-4.7 zamarandi—imali esele yenzuzo engu-0.6%. Yinzuzo yokuqala kusukela ngo-2019 lapho inzuzo yemboni yayingama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-26.4 (3.1% ingqikithi yenzuzo eyinzuzo).

Ngo-2022, ukulahlekelwa okuphelele kwenkampani yezindiza kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngu-$6.9 wezigidigidi (intuthuko ekulahlekeni kuka-$9.7 billion ngo-2022 ekubukeni kwe-IATA ngoJuni). Lokhu kungcono kakhulu kunokulahlekelwa kwezigidigidi ezingama- $ 42.0 kanye nezigidigidi ezingama- $ 137.7 okwenzeka ngo-2021 nango-2020 ngokulandelana.

“Ukuqina kube wuphawu lwezindiza enkingeni ye-COVID-19. Njengoba sibheke ku-2023, ukusimama kwezimali kuzovela ngenzuzo yokuqala yemboni kusukela ngo-2019. Leyo yimpumelelo enkulu uma kucatshangelwa izinga lomonakalo wezezimali nezomnotho obangelwe imingcele ebekwe uhulumeni yobhubhane. Kepha inzuzo eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-4.7 emalini engenayo yemboni yezigidigidi ezingama-779 nayo ikhombisa ukuthi kuningi okungase kuhlanganiswe ukubeka imboni yomhlaba esimeni esiqinile sezezimali. Izinkampani zezindiza eziningi zinenzuzo eyanele ukuze zihehe imali edingekayo ukuze iqhubekisele phambili imboni njengoba ikhipha ikhabhoni. Kodwa abanye abaningi badonsa kanzima ngenxa yezizathu ezihlukahlukene. Lokhu kubandakanya ukulawula okunzima, izindleko eziphezulu, izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni ezingaguquki, ingqalasizinda engasebenzi kahle kanye nochungechunge lwenani lapho imivuzo yokuxhumanisa umhlaba ingasatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo,” kusho uWillie Walsh. IATAUMqondisi Jikelele.

2022

Amathemba athuthukisiwe ka-2022 asukela kakhulu ekuvunweni okuqinisiwe kanye nokulawulwa kwezindleko okuqinile lapho kubhekene nokukhuphuka kwamanani kaphethiloli.

Ukuvunwa kwabagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngo-8.4% (kusuka ku-5.6% okulindeleke ngoJuni). Igqugquzelwa yilawo mandla, imali engenayo yabagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ifinyelele ku- $438 billion (isuka ku- $239 billion ngo-2021).

Imali engenayo yempahla yomoya ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ekunciphiseni ukulahlekelwa ngemali engenayo okulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$201.4 billion. Lokho kuyintuthuko uma kuqhathaniswa nesibikezelo sikaJuni, esingashintshile kakhulu kusukela ngo-2021, futhi ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kwezigidigidi ezingama- $ 100.8 ezitholwe ngo-2019.

Imali engenayo iyonke kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-43.6% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021, ifinyelele emalini elinganiselwa ezigidini ezingama-727 zamaRandi.

Ezinye izici eziningi zavela ngendlela engeyinhle kulandela ukwehliswa kokulindelwe kokukhula kwe-GDP (kusuka ku-3.4% ngoJuni kuya ku-2.9%), kanye nokubambezeleka ekususeni imikhawulo ye-COVID-19 ezimakethe ezimbalwa, ikakhulukazi e-China. Isibikezelo se-IATA sikaJuni besilindele ukuthi isiminyaminya sabagibeli sizofinyelela ku-82.4% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele ngo-2022, kodwa manje kubonakala sengathi ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo semboni kuzofinyelela ku-70.6% wamazinga angaphambi kwenhlekelele. I-Cargo, ngakolunye uhlangothi, bekulindeleke ukuthi idlule emazingeni ka-2019 ngo-11.7%, kodwa manje kungenzeka ukuthi ilinganiswe ibe ngama-98.4% wamazinga ka-2019.

Ngasohlangothini lwezindleko, amanani kaphalafini wejethi kulindeleke ukuthi abe nesilinganiso esingu-$138.8/umgqomo wonyaka, aphakeme kakhulu kuno-$125.5/umgqomo olindeleke ngoJuni. Lokho kukhombisa amanani entengo kawoyela aphezulu enziwa ihaba ukusabalala kwe-jet crack okungaphezu kwesilinganiso esingokomlando. Noma kunesidingo esiphansi esiholela ekuncishisweni kokusetshenziswa, lokhu kwenyuse isikweletu sikaphethiloli embonini safinyelela ku-$222 billion (ngaphezulu kakhulu kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-192 okulindeleke ngoJuni).

“Ukuthi izinkampani zezindiza zikwazile ukunciphisa ukulahlekelwa kwazo ngo-2022, ngenxa yezindleko ezikhulayo, ukushoda kwezisebenzi, iziteleka, ukuphazamiseka kokusebenza ezindaweni eziningi ezibalulekile kanye nokukhula kokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho kukhuluma kakhulu ngesifiso sabantu kanye nesidingo sokuxhumana. Njengoba ezinye izimakethe ezibalulekile njengeChina igcina imikhawulo isikhathi eside kunalokho obekulindelwe, izinombolo zabagibeli zehle ngandlela thize njengoba bekulindelwe. Sizophetha unyaka cishe ngama-70% wevolumu yabagibeli bango-2019. Kepha ngokuthuthuka kwesivuno emabhizinisini ezimpahla nabagibeli, izindiza zizofinyelela esicongweni senzuzo, ”kusho uWalsh.

2023

Ngo-2023 imboni yezindiza kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele enzuzweni. Izinkampani zezindiza kulindeleke ukuthi zithole inzuzo yomhlaba wonke yezigidigidi ezingama-$4.7 emalini engenayo eyizigidigidi ezingama-$779 (ingqikithi yemali engu-0.6%). Lokhu kuthuthukiswa okulindelekile kuza naphezu kokukhula kokungaqiniseki komnotho njengoba ukukhula kwe-GDP emhlabeni kwehla kuya ku-1.3% (kusuka ku-2.9% ngo-2022).

“Naphezu kokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho, kunezizathu eziningi zokuba nethemba ngo-2023. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kawoyela kanye nokuqhubeka kwesidingo esilindile kufanele kusize ukugcina izindleko zisezingeni njengoba ukukhula okuqinile kuqhubeka. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngamamajini amancane kangako, ngisho noshintsho olungasho lutho kunoma iyiphi yalezi ziguquguqukayo lunamandla okushintsha ibhalansi ibe indawo engeyinhle. Ukuqapha nokuvumelana nezimo kuzoba ukhiye,” kusho uWalsh.

Abashayeli Abayinhloko

Passenger: Ibhizinisi labagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi lingenise imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-522. Isidingo sabagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-85.5% wamazinga ka-2019 phakathi no-2023. Okuningi kwalokhu okulindelekile kucabangela ukungaqiniseki kwezinqubomgomo ze-China Zero COVID ezicindezela kokubili izimakethe zasekhaya nezamazwe ngamazwe. Noma kunjalo, izinombolo zabagibeli kulindeleke ukuthi zidlule umaki wezigidigidi ezine okokuqala kusukela ngo-2019, kanti abahambi abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-4.2 kulindeleke ukuthi bandize. Isivuno sabagibeli, nokho, kulindeleke ukuthi sithambe (-1.7%) njengoba izindleko zamandla ezithi ziphansi zidluliselwa kumthengi, naphezu kwesidingo sabagibeli sikhula ngokushesha okukhulu (+21.1%) kunomthamo wabagibeli (+18.0%).

cargo: Izimakethe zezimpahla kulindeleke ukuthi zibe ngaphansi kwengcindezi eyengeziwe ngo-2023. Imali engenayo kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-149.4, okuyi-$52 billion engaphansi kuka-2022 kodwa isanamandla amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-48.6 kunonyaka ka-2019. Ngokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho, amanani ezimpahla kulindeleke ukuthi ehle afinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-57.7 , kusukela esiqongweni samathani ayizigidi ezingu-65.6 ngo-2021. Njengoba umthamo wesisu ukhula ngokuhambisana nokusimama kwezimakethe zabagibeli, isivuno kulindeleke ukuthi sithathe isinyathelo esibalulekile emuva. I-IATA ilindele ukwehla ngo-22.6% ezivunweni zempahla, ikakhulukazi engxenyeni yokugcina yonyaka lapho umthelela wezinyathelo zokupholisa ukwehla kwamandla emali kulindeleke ukuthi ulume. Ukubeka ukwehla kwesivuno kumongo, isivuno sempahla sikhule ngo-52.5% ngo-2020, ama-24.2% ngo-2021 kanye no-7.2% ngo-2022.

Izindleko: Izindleko zizonke kulindeleke ukuthi zikhule ngo-5.3% ziye ku-$776 billion. Lokho kukhula kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngamaphesenti angu-1.8 ngaphansi kokukhula kwemali engenayo, ngaleyo ndlela kusekele ukubuyiselwa kwenzuzo. Izingcindezi zezindleko zisekhona ngenxa yabasebenzi, amakhono kanye nokushoda kwamandla. Izindleko zengqalasizinda nazo ziyakhathaza.

Noma kunjalo, izindleko zeyunithi okungezona zikaphethiloli kulindeleke ukuthi zehle zifike ku-39.8 cents/than kilometer elitholakalayo (zehle zisuka ku-41.7 cents/ATK ngo-2022 futhi zicishe zifane no-39.2 cents/ATK ezuzwe ngo-2019). Izinzuzo zezindiza ezisebenza kahle kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhube izici zomthwalo wabagibeli ziye ku-81.0 %, ngaphansi kancane nje kwama-82.6% azuzwe ngo-2019.

Isamba sikaphethiloli esichithwe ngo-2023 kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-229—okungaguquki ku-30% wezindleko. Isibikezelo se-IATA sisekelwe ku-Brent crude ku-$92.3/umphongolo (sehle sisuka esilinganisweni sika-$103.2/umgqomo ngo-2022). Uphalafini weJet kulindeleke ukuthi wenze isilinganiso esingu-$111.9/umgqomo (wehle usuka ku-$138.8/umphongolo). Lokhu kuncipha kubonisa ukuzinza okulinganiselwe kokunikezwa kukaphethiloli ngemva kokuphazamiseka kokuqala okuvela empini yase-Ukraine. Iprimiyamu ekhokhiswa uphethiloli wejethi (i-crack spread) ihlala iseduze nokuphakama komlando.

Izingozi: Imvelo yezomnotho kanye neyepolitiki iveza izingozi ezimbalwa ezingaba khona kumbono ka-2023.

Nakuba izinkomba zithi kungase kube khona ukwehliswa kwezinga lenzalo elinamandla lokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2023, ubungozi bokuthi eminye iminotho iwela ekuwohlokeni komnotho isekhona. Ukuncipha okunjalo kungase kuthinte isidingo sazo zombili izinsiza zabagibeli nezimpahla. Kodwa-ke, kuzofika nokwehliswa okuthile ngendlela yamanani aphansi kawoyela.

Umbono ulindele ukuvulwa kabusha kweChina kancane kancane kuthrafikhi yamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokudambisa imikhawulo yasekhaya ye-COVID-19 ngokuqhubekayo kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023. Ukwelulwa kwezinqubomgomo zaseChina ze-Zero COVID kuzophazamisa umbono.

Uma zenziwa izinto ezibonakalayo, iziphakamiso zokukhushulwa kwezindleko zengqalasizinda noma izintela zokuxhasa imizamo yokusimama nazo zingadla inzuzo ngo-2023.

“Umsebenzi wabaphathi bezindiza uzohlala unenselelo njengoba ukubhekisisa ukungaqiniseki kwezomnotho kuzoba bucayi. Izindaba ezinhle ukuthi izinkampani zezindiza ziye zakha ukuguquguquka kumamodeli azo webhizinisi ukuze zikwazi ukubhekana nokusheshisa komnotho kanye nokwehla okunomthelela ekufuneni. Inzuzo yendiza incane kakhulu. Umgibeli ngamunye othwetshiwe kulindeleke ukuthi anikele ngokwesilinganiso nje u-$1.11 enzuzweni yonke yomkhakha. Ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba lokho kuncane kakhulu kunalokho okudingekayo ukuthenga inkomishi yekhofi. Izinkampani zezindiza kufanele zihlale ziqaphele noma yikuphi ukukhuphuka kwezintela noma izinkokhelo zengqalasizinda. Futhi kuzodingeka siqaphele ikakhulukazi labo abenziwe egameni lokusimama. Ukuzibophezela kwethu kuwukuqeda ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 okungenayo i-CO2050 ngo-XNUMX. Sizodinga zonke izinsiza esingazithola, kuhlanganisa nezikhuthazo zikahulumeni, ukuze sixhase ngezimali lolu shintsho olukhulu lwamandla. Izintela ezengeziwe kanye nezindleko eziphakeme ngeke zikhiqize,” kusho uWalsh.

I-Regional Round Up

Ukusebenza kwezimali kwazo zonke izifunda kuyaqhubeka nokuba ngcono kusukela ekujuleni kokulahlekelwa kobhubhane ngo-2020. INyakatho Melika ukuphela kwesifunda esizobuyela enzuzweni ngo-2022, ngokusekelwe ezilinganisweni zethu. Izifunda ezimbili zizojoyina iNyakatho Melika kulokhu ngo-2023: IYurophu neMpumalanga Ephakathi, kuyilapho iLatin America, i-Afrika, ne-Asia-Pacific izohlala ibomvu.

Abathwali baseNyakatho Melika kulindeleke ukuthi bathole inzuzo engu-$9.9 billion ngo-2022 kanye ne-$11.4 billion ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kwesidingo sabagibeli ngo-6.4% kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule amandla okukhula ngo-5.5%. Onyakeni, isifunda kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze ama-97.2% amazinga esidingo sangaphambi kwenhlekelele ngama-98.9% wamandla angaphambi kwenhlekelele.

Izinkampani zenethiwekhi esifundeni zihlomule emikhawulweni yokuvakasha embalwa futhi ehlala isikhathi eside kunamanye amazwe amaningi nezifunda. Lokhu kukhulise imakethe yasekhaya yase-US enkulu, kanye nohambo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ikakhulukazi ukuwela i-Atlantic.

Abathwali baseYurophu kulindeleke ukuthi kubonakale ukulahlekelwa kwezigidigidi ezingu-3.1 zamaRandi ngo-2022, kanye nenzuzo yezigidi ezingu-621 zamaRandi ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kwesidingo sabagibeli ngo-8.9% kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ukukhula kwamandla ka-6.1%. Onyakeni, isifunda kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze ama-88.7% amazinga esidingo sangaphambi kwenhlekelele ngama-89.1% wamandla angaphambi kwenhlekelele.

Impi yase-Ukraine inciphise imisebenzi yabanye abathwali besifunda. Ukuphazamiseka kokusebenza kwezinye izindawo zezwekazi kuyaxazululwa, kodwa izinxushunxushu zabasebenzi zisaqhubeka ezindaweni ezahlukene.

Abathwali base-Asia-Pacific kulindeleke ukuthi kuthunyelwe ukulahlekelwa kwezigidigidi ezingu-10.0 ngo-2022, kwehle kuya ekulahlekelweni kwezigidigidi ezingu-6.6 ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kwesidingo sabagibeli ngo-59.8% kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ukukhula kwamandla ka-47.8%. Onyakeni, isifunda kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze u-70.8% wamazinga esidingo sangaphambi kwenhlekelele ngama-75.5% wamandla angaphambi kwenhlekelele.

I-Asia-Pacific ibambeke kakhulu ngomthelela wezinqubomgomo ze-COVID zero zaseChina ekuhambeni futhi ukulahlekelwa kwesifunda kuphazanyiswe kakhulu ukusebenza kwezinkampani zezindiza zaseChina ezibhekene nomthelela ogcwele wale nqubomgomo ezimakethe zasekhaya nezamazwe ngamazwe. Ngokubheka okuqinile kokunwetshwa kwemikhawulo eqhubekayo e-China engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023, nokho silindele isidingo esinamandla sokuvala ukuze siqhubekisele phambili ukuphindaphindeka okusheshayo ngemva kwanoma yiziphi izinyathelo ezinjalo. Ukusebenza kwesifunda kuthola ukukhushulwa okubalulekile ezimakethe zezimpahla zomoya ezinenzuzo, lapho kungumdlali omkhulu kakhulu.

Abathwali be-Middle East kulindeleke ukuthi kuthunyelwe ukulahlekelwa kwezigidigidi ezingu-1.1 ngo-2022, kanye nenzuzo yezigidi ezingu-268 zamaRandi ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kwesidingo sabagibeli ngo-23.4% kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ukukhula kwamandla ka-21.2%. Onyakeni, isifunda kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze ama-97.8% amazinga esidingo sangaphambi kwenhlekelele ngama-94.5% wamandla angaphambi kwenhlekelele.

Isifunda sihlomule ezingeni elithile lokuqondisa kabusha okubangelwe yimpi yase-Ukraine, futhi okubaluleke nakakhulu ngenxa yesidingo sokuhamba esinesikhathi eside sisebenzisa amanethiwekhi omhlaba abanzi esifunda njengoba kuvulwa kabusha izimakethe zezokuvakasha zamazwe ngamazwe.

Abathwali beLatin American kulindeleke ukuthi zithumele ukulahlekelwa kwezigidigidi ezingu-2.0 zamaRandi ngo-2022, zehliselwe ku-$795 million ngo-2023. Ngo-2023, ukukhula kwesidingo sabagibeli ngo-9.3% kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ukukhula kwamandla ka-6.3%. Onyakeni, isifunda kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze ama-95.6% amazinga esidingo sangaphambi kwenhlekelele ngama-94.2% wamandla angaphambi kwenhlekelele.

ILatin America ikhombise ukunyakaza unyaka wonke, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthi amazwe amaningi aqala ukususa imikhawulo yawo yokuhamba ye-COVID-19 kusukela maphakathi nonyaka.

Abathwali base-Afrika kulindeleke ukuthi zithumele ukulahlekelwa kwezigidi ezingu-638 zamaRandi ngo-2022, kwehle kuze kufike ekulahlekeni kwezigidi ezingu-213 zamaRandi ngo-2023. Ukukhula kwesidingo sabagibeli ngo-27.4% kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule amandla okukhula ngo-21.9%. Onyakeni, isifunda kulindeleke ukuthi sinikeze ama-86.3% amazinga esidingo sangaphambi kwenhlekelele ngama-83.9% wamandla angaphambi kwenhlekelele.

I-Afrika ibhekene ikakhulukazi nezivunguvungu zezomnotho ezinkulu ezikhuphule ukuba sengozini kweminotho eminingana futhi kwenza ukuxhumana kube nzima kakhulu.

Umugqa Ongezansi

“Inzuzo elindelekile ngo-2023 incane kakhulu. Kodwa kuphawuleka ngendlela emangalisayo ukuthi sesiphendukele ekhoneni ekwenzeni inzuzo. Izinselelo izinkampani zezindiza ezizobhekana nazo ngo-2023, nakuba ziyinkimbinkimbi, zizowela ezindaweni zethu zokuhlangenwe nakho. Imboni yakhe ikhono elihle lokuzivumelanisa nokuguquguquka komnotho, izinto ezibiza kakhulu njengezintengo zikaphethiloli, kanye nokuthandwa kwabagibeli. Lokhu sikubona kukhonjiswa eshumini leminyaka lokuqinisa inzuzo kulandela Inhlekelele Yezezimali Yomhlaba ka-2008 futhi iphetha ngobhubhane. Futhi okukhuthazayo ukuthi miningi imisebenzi futhi iningi labantu liyazethemba ngokuhamba noma linombono wezomnotho ongaqinisekile,” kusho uWalsh.

Abagibeli basebenzisa ithuba lokubuya kwenkululeko yabo yokuhamba. Inhlolovo yakamuva ye-IATA yabahambi ezimakethe zomhlaba eziyi-11 iveze ukuthi cishe ama-70% ahamba kakhulu noma ngaphezulu kunangaphambili kwalolu bhubhane. Futhi, ngenkathi isimo somnotho simayelana nama-85% wabahambi, ama-57% awanayo inhloso yokunqanda imikhuba yabo yokuhamba.

Ucwaningo olufanayo luphinde lwabonisa indima ebalulekile izivakashi ezibona imboni yezindiza idlala:

U-91% uthe ukuxhumana ngezindiza kubalulekile emnothweni
U-90% uthe ukuhamba ngendiza kuyisidingo empilweni yesimanje
Ama-87% athi ukuhamba ngendiza kunomthelela omuhle emiphakathini, futhi
Kwabangu-57% abajwayelene nezinjongo ze-UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), abangama-91% bayaqonda ukuthi ezokuthutha emoyeni zinomthelela omkhulu.