Ngemuva kokuzabalaza ne-COVID iminyaka engaphezu kwemibili, imboni yezindiza izophinde ibuyele emuva - njengoba imikhumbi ikhula ngo-4% ngonyaka eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo, ngokusho kwe-Global Fleet & MRO Forecast 2022-2032.
Kepha njengoba isidingo somhlaba wonke se-pent-up sicindezela ukuhamba kwezindiza kumazinga angaphambi kobhubhane ngo-2023, imboni izophinda ibhekane nokukhuphuka ukukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide kanye nokuntuleka kwayo kwezixazululo ezisheshayo zokuzinciphisa.
Umbiko olindelwe abaningi, manje oseshumini lesithathu leminyaka, umba ujule ekulethweni kwezindiza zezentengiselwano nohlu lwezimpahla - kanye nokukhiqizwa kwe-aerospace - ukuze unikeze umbono obanzi wobukhulu nokwakheka kwemikhumbi yezohwebo kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo. Umbono uchaza ukukhula emhlabeni jikelele kanye nombono wesifunda. Ukwengeza, ihlaziya izinsiza zesondlo, zokukhanda, kanye nezokulungisa (MRO) ezodingwa umkhumbi.
Okutholwe okubalulekile kombiko ka-2022-2032 kuhlanganisa:
- Imikhumbi yomhlaba wonke izokhula ifinyelele ku-38,100 ngo-2032 - izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lika-4.1% kule minyaka eyishumi.
- Izindiza ze-Narrowbody zizokwakha ingxenye enkulu yemikhumbi - 64% ngoJanuwari 2032 uma iqhathaniswa nama-58% ngoJanuwari 2020 - njengoba ukululama kancane kwethrafikhi yamazwe omhlaba ngemuva kwe-COVID-19 kucindezela isibalo sabantu abaningi abasebenza enkonzweni.
- Umkhumbi ngeke ufinyelele inani lawo eliphakeme langaphambi kobhubhane elicishe libe ngu-28,000 kuze kube yingxenye yokuqala ka-2023.
- Imikhumbi ethwala impahla ezinikele emhlabeni wonke ikhule ngo-3% futhi ukuguqulwa kwezindiza ezithwala impahla ezithwala impahla kwephule amarekhodi, ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo esinamadijithi amabili ngokuqhuma okuhlobene ne-COVID ekuthengeni ku-inthanethi kanye nokulahlekelwa umthamo wesisu sempahla.
- Umkhakha we-MRO uchazwa kabusha uxhaxha lwezindiza ezishintshayo, njengoba izinkampani zezindiza ziqala ukuletha ama-narrowbodies amasha, azonga kakhulu uphethiloli futhi zizama ukuqeda izindiza ezindala ezizodinga izikhathi zokunakekelwa okuqinile.
- Ngo-2030, isidingo se-MRO kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-$118 billion, u-13% ngaphansi kwesibikezelo sangaphambi kwe-COVID sika-$135 billion, okubonisa ukukhula okulahlekile okuvela ku-COVID.
Kunethemba lokuthi imboni isidlulile emhlabeni futhi manje isibheke phezulu - kodwa iminyaka eyi-10 ezayo izogcwala izinselelo eziningi ezizovivinya ukuqina kwemboni ngokungafani nakuqala.
Asikho isixazululo esilula sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu
Izindiza zibalwe cishe u-2.3% wengqikithi ukukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide ngo-2021 - ngaphansi kakhulu kunezokuthutha zomgwaqo. Kodwa ikhono lokushintshela ezimotweni ezisebenza ngogesi eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo kungenzeka linciphise inani lezokuthutha emgwaqeni futhi liqhubekisele phambili izindiza zezindiza - okungase kwandise ingcindezi embonini.
Izindiza azinakulungiswa kalula naphezu kwamashumi eminyaka yokwandisa ukusebenza kahle kukaphethiloli ezindizeni. Nakuba ucwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kusaqhubeka mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwezinjini ze-hydrogen nezikagesi esikhundleni sezindiza ezivamile ezisebenza kuphethiloli, lezo zinhlelo zokuguqula izinto zikude okungenani neminyaka eyi-15 kuya kwengu-20 kusukela ekukhiqizeni ezentengiselwano. Futhi enye enye indlela - uphethiloli wendiza eqhubekayo (SAF) - ayinawo amandla okukhiqiza anele noma umnotho ofanele ongasebenzela izinkampani zezindiza noma abakhiqizi be-SAF.
Njengoba ibikubi ngendlela emangalisayo i-COVID-19 kwezokundiza, inselelo yeshumi leminyaka elizayo ingase icishe iphazamise. Imboni idinga amasu ahlakaniphile ukuze izibeke esimweni esingcono ngeminyaka yawo-2030.
LOKHO ONGAKUTHATHE KULESI SIHLOKO:
- The widely anticipated report, now in its third decade, digs deep into commercial aircraft deliveries and inventories — as well as aerospace production — to provide a comprehensive view of the size and composition of the commercial fleet over the next decade.
- The fleet won’t reach its pre-pandemic peak of almost 28,000 until the first half of 2023The dedicated global cargo fleet grew 3% and conversions of passenger aircraft to freight carriers broke records, thanks to a double-digit expansion in demand with the COVID-related explosion in online shopping and the loss of cargo belly capacity.
- But the ability to transition to electric vehicles over the next 10 years is likely to reduce road transport’s share and push aviation’s up — potentially increasing pressure on the industry.
