Kusondela phakathi kwamabili endizeni: Ngubani ozophenduka ithanga?

1. Ngaphandle kokwehla okukhulu ngenxa ye-COVID, izindiza zezindiza zibe nemimoya emihle eqinile, kepha ingabe umkhakha uzokubona ukukhanya ekugcineni komhubhe?
2. Ukuhamba ngezebhizinisi kuzohlala kunciphile kakhulu futhi kubukela phansi imodeli yendiza egcwele.
3. Ngenkathi usizo olujwayelekile lukahulumeni lwezomnotho lukhokhele amaholo, usizo oluningi luyadingeka kohulumeni.

---

Funda - noma hlala phansi ulalele - le nkulumo ethokozisayo ngekusasa leposi yezindiza i-COVID-19. UPeter Harbison, uCAPA Center for Aviation Executive Chairman, wabelana ngemibono yakhe yobungcweti. Uqala:

Ngiyethemba ukuthi phakathi nalokhu uzoqala ukwazisa engikhuluma ngakho lapha - uhhafu wamaphoyinti abalulekile. Esokuqala ukuthi iqiniso liqala ukuluma ngekota yesibili yalo nyaka njengoba uhulumeni esekela ukoma, njengoba imali idinga ukuqala ukungena. Eqinisweni, sisondela endaweni entsha yokuthola imali. Okulandelayo, ngabe empeleni sibona ukukhanya ekugcineni komhubhe? Bese kancane mayelana ukuhamba ngezebhizinisi, kubukela phansi kanjani imodeli yendiza egcwele ngokulahlekelwa yingxenye enkulu yayo. Ngemuva kwalokho baphi ohulumeni lapho ubadinga? Kuhle umbuzo. Kancane mayelana nezimpi ze-jab, inqubo yokugoma. Ngemuva kwalokho ngifuna ukuqeda ngezinkomba ezithile zomkhakha wesikhathi esizayo njengoba ngibona zona, ezinye zazo zinkulu impela.

Ngakho-ke, kuze kube manje, izindiza zezindiza zijabulele imisila yomoya enamandla ebasizile ukuthi bahlale beketshezi onyakeni odlule, yize kube nokuwa okukhulu emakethe. Kepha-ke, ngenkathi kwenziwa lokho, amaphrofayili esikweletu sabo asehle kakhulu impela. Usizo olujwayelekile lukahulumeni lwezomnotho selukhokhele amaholo. Amazwe amaningi anikeze imali mboleko kanye / noma athola ukulingana ezindizeni zawo, ngenhlanhla, ngokuya ngemisila yomsila. Ngenhlanhla, izimakethe zamasheya zahlala ziqinile. Ngakho-ke, ukukhulisa ukulingana nakho kungenzeka. Amanani wempahla ahlala ephezulu, ngakho-ke ukukhushulwa kwezikweletu kwenzeke.

Kaningi, abaxhasi abancane abaxhaswe ngemali bebelokhu benesandla esivulekile ekusizeni izindiza ukuthi ziqhubeke zisebenza. Futhi-ke, amanani enzalo aphansi ngokukhethekile futhi kubukeka njengokuhlala unjalo isikhathi eside. Ngenxa yalokho, izindiza ezimbalwa kakhulu zawa. Kukhona uhlu lwazo, kepha okumangazayo ngonyaka bekungekhona ukuthi zingaki eziwile, kepha zingaki ezingazange ziwe. Kwakungunyaka nje owesabekayo. Umthamo wamazwe omhlaba wehle wacishe ube li-10 lamazinga awo angaphambilini futhi imisebenzi eminingi yasekhaya ayihambanga kahle kakhulu kusuka ngoFebhuwari, Mashi 2020 unyaka wonke. Kepha ngasikhathi sinye, ezinye izindiza ezintsha zingene emakethe.

Ngakho-ke manje sesicishe saba maphakathi nekota yokuqala yalo nyaka omusha futhi isimo sisalokhu sibucayi. Yini ezokwenzeka ngokulandelayo? Ukwesekwa kwezomnotho okujwayelekile kuzoqhubeka kuze kube yikota yesibili, mhlawumbe ngaphezulu e-US kuya ngokwenzeka eCongress. Imali engenayo yezindiza, okwamanje, kungenzeka ihlale imile, futhi ukushiswa kwemali, ngamanani asabekayo, kuyaqhubeka. Ukukhishwa kokugoma kuthuthukisa kancane kancane umuzwa wabathengi nokusiza ekwehliseni amazinga okufa namacala amasha, ngethemba. Kepha ukuhamba kwemali manje sekubucayi. Sisondela endaweni yokuchopha. Ukushiswa kwemali akukwazi ukuqhubeka unomphela. Ngakho-ke, izindiza kuzofanele ziqale ukusebenza kunokuba bamane bashise ifenisha ukuzigcina befudumele. Ngaleyo nqubo, ithemba ngeke kube isu elanele. Cishe sekuphakathi kwamabili.

Ngakho-ke izinto zizohluka kanjani kwikota yesibili? Okokuqala, njengoba ompompi bezinsiza zikahulumeni bevaliwe, yiziphi izimakethe ezizokwenza kangcono kakhulu? Ukugonywa kuvame ukuthuthukisa ukubukwa komthengi nombono ojwayelekile, ikakhulukazi e-US, e-UK nase-Israel, kusobala, obekushesha kakhulu ukuhambisa, futhi mhlawumbe neChina, kepha okubalulekile, hhayi emhlabeni jikelele. Ukuhamba ngezebhizinisi kuzohlala kunciphile kakhulu. Umthamo wamazwe omhlaba usahlala ungaphansi kwe-10% yamazinga wangaphambi kobhadane, futhi imingcele eminingi isavaliwe namanje. Kepha i-US yasekhaya kanye neChina yasekhaya kufanele bakhombise ezinye izimpawu ezinhle zokuthuthuka.

Ake sibheke iYurophu kuqala. Njengoba sekusele amasonto ambalwa ukuthi kubhukwe ukuze kutholakale ikota yesibili, okuyisikhathi esiyinhloko sezindiza zaseYurophu, izimpendulo zikahulumeni zemingcele zisahlukanisiwe futhi azihlanganisiwe, inqubekela phambili yokugoma ihamba kancane futhi ayilingani, futhi ngizokhuluma kancane lokho kamuva. Abagibeli babhuka sekwedlule isikhathi futhi bayanqikaza ukundiza amazwe omhlaba manje uma bebeka engcupheni ukuvalelwa bodwa noma ukukhanselwa kwezindiza. I-Eurocontrol, ehlanganisa iYurophu ebanzi, iphakamisa ukuthi umsebenzi uzohlala uphansi phakathi nekota yokuqala bese uqala ukukhuphuka ngobumnene ngo-Ephreli nangoMeyi walo nyaka.

Khonamanjalo, amandla okuhlala kwabantu ezindizeni eYurophu ayaqhubeka nokusebenza kancane kuwo wonke umhlaba. I-Middle East yehle ngama-56%. I-Afrika yehle ngama-50%. INyakatho Melika yehle ngo-48%, i-Asia Pacific yaba ngu-45% kwathi iLatin America yona yaya ngo-42%. Amandla esihlalo saseYurophu ehle ngama-74%. Ngisho nama-LCCs aseYurophu, ngokuvamile emhlabeni jikelele abesenza kangcono, aseqala ukukwenza kube nzima. Ukwehla kwemali engenayo empeleni kusheshisiwe kwikota yokugcina ka-2020, i-easyJet kakhulu ngoba ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukene abawandisanga amandla abo. Kepha lokho kwehla okuphelele kwama-LCC ngicabanga ukuthi kubaluleke kakhulu, iWizz neRyanair ikakhulukazi. Izindiza zaseYurophu zidinga imali yekota yokuqala kabi. Ingabe izofika ngesikhathi? Cishe cha. Ukukhishwa komuthi wokugoma wase-UK kubukeka kukuhle, kepha isikhathi sifushane kakhulu ukuthi singaletha ukuzethemba komphakathi noma sinikeze ohulumeni ukuzimisela ukuvula imingcele yabo. Ngakho-ke, ukuthengisa ezimakethe ngaphambi kwePhasika eYurophu kuzoba nzima kakhulu. Kukhona igrafu enethemba elikhulu lapha evela kwiThe New York Times ephakamisa ukuthi imishanguzo yokugoma ingahle ifihle ubhadane lwase-UK emasontweni, ibheke wonke umuntu ozohlanganiswa ngasekupheleni kukaJuni, okuyindlela enethemba, futhi mhlawumbe asazi lezi zimo ukuthi kuzoba yini. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Financial Times ngesonto eledlule iphakamise ukuthi iziphathimandla zezempilo zithi kunezinhlobo ezintathu ezahlukahlukene zegciwane ezisakazeka eNgilandi ngoshintsho okukholelwa ukuthi lubukela phansi ukuvikelwa kwamasosha omzimba okunikezwa ukutheleleka kwangaphambili kanye nemithi yokugoma yamanje. Ngakho-ke, akuzona izindaba ezinhle lezo.

E-UK, i-IHME, ebinembe kakhulu ekuqageleni kwayo ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezedlule noma kunjalo, amaphrojekthi, futhi, akhuphuka futhi asheshisa ukufa kwabantu e-UK kuze kufike cishe ku-170,000 ngasekupheleni kukaMeyi, okusobala ukuthi kunomthelela kuwo wonke umhlaba ibhodi ngokomqondo kahulumeni kanye nomuzwa wabathengi. ISpain, ethembele kakhulu ekuvuseleleni kabusha kwezokuvakasha, kulindeleke ukuthi inyuke ngoFebhuwari, Mashi kuze kufike ku-Ephreli maqondana nokufa. Hhayi uphawu oluhle. EFrance, i-trajectory nayo ihamba phambili phezulu. Ngakho-ke, zonke lezi yizimpawu ezenza kube nzima ukubona ukuthi iYurophu ingalulama ngokushesha kanjani.

Ngishilo ngaphambili ukuthi izindiza zasekhaya zaseMelika kufanele zibuye kuqala, futhi kuyathakazelisa ngezizathu eziningi. Okokuqala, kunomehluko omkhulu phakathi kwesimo se-US kanye namanye amazwe amaningi athuthukile kuyo yonke inqubo futhi lokho kungenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukene. Izwe elihlukile ngezindlela eziningi. Ikhono nokho, lokubekezelela ukufa kwabantu abacishe babe yi-4,000 ngosuku yinto ohulumeni abaningi abangakulungele ukuyenza. Qhathanisa lokho neChina, lapho ukuqubuka kokuqala kwakweqise ngempela, futhi selokhu balulama futhi bathola izinto ikakhulu ngaphansi kolawulo. Imikhawulo yabo yokuhamba ibambeka phansi noma kunini lapho kuba nokuqubuka okusha, futhi ngizokhuluma kancane kancane ngalokho ngomzuzwana. Njengomphumela waleyo nqubo nangesimo sokuqala nezenzo ezithathiwe ukwehlisa ukukhula, uhambo lwaseChina lwasekhaya lucishe lube sezingeni elifanayo nalokho okwakukhona ngaphambiCovid. Ngenkathi i-US ihlala icishe ibe ngama-50%. Kepha womabili la mazwe akhombisa ukuvuseleleka ngokushesha njengoba imijovo yokugoma iphuma.

Manje, lezi zithombe empeleni zibiza izindaba eziyinkulungwane. Okokuqala, kuyathakazelisa ukuthi zombili izimakethe manje sezicishe zifane nosayizi. La magrafu akhombisa ngombala obomvu umkhondo womthamo ngo-2020, futhi ungabona ukuthi iChina lapho yehla ngokushesha okukhulu ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari njengoba umthamo wehliswa futhi ukuvalwa kwemakethe kuvele nje. I-US, ngokuqhathanisa, yayihambe kahle ngoMashi ngaphambi kokuthi izinto zivalwe lapho. Ulayini obomvu phezulu, okhombisa impendulo ehamba kancane futhi ngezindlela eziningi, kuphakanyisiwe, ushintshe yonke indlela ye-US.

Umugqa oluhlaza onamachashazi nolayini oqinile oluhlaza, ulayini oluqinile oluqinile ukhombisa ukuthi sikuphi ngo-2021. Umhlane waseChina ucishe ube sezingeni lango-2019. Kepha ngokuthakazelisayo, lesi yisikhathi esiyinhloko sonyaka. Unyaka Omusha WamaShayina, uNyaka Omusha WamaShayina yisikhathi esikhulu sokuhamba, futhi kube nemikhawulo ebalulekile ekuhambeni ukuze kunciphise okunye ukuqubuka. Kepha imigqa enamachashazi, iyakushaya indiva ukwehla kweShayina ngemuva kwaphakathi kukaMashi kuze kube sekupheleni kukaMashi ngoba leyo inkinga nje yokugcwalisa isheduli. Kepha njengoba ubona, i-US ne-China babukeka benethemba ngokwedlulele ekupheleni kwale nyanga. AbaseMelika abahamba phambili kuze kufike ezigidini eziyi-15, izihlalo eziyizigidi eziyi-15, ekupheleni kukaMashi naseChina kuze kube yizigidi ezimbalwa ngaphezulu.