Yini inhloso yokuhlasela iKenya?

Ukuhlasela imboni yezokuvakasha nezokuvakasha yi-modus operandi cishe yiwo wonke amaqembu ezobuphekula emhlabeni. Ezokuvakasha ziyimboni entekenteke futhi ukuhlaselwa kwengqalasizinda yezokuvakasha kungaba nokulahlekelwa okukhulu kwezomnotho, futhi kuyinkinga enkulu ye-PR kuzo zonke izintoy, ngokusho kweqembu lezokuvakasha nezokuvakasha elizinze e-US okuqinisekisiwe.uhambo

I-Al-Shabaab usemangalele isibopho se- ukuhlasela kwamaphekula eNairobi lapho kwashona khona inqwaba yabantu yalimala. Umbuzo ophakanyiswa ukuhlaselwa amaphekula wukuthi kungani leli qembu liqhubeka nokukhomba eKenya. UMoina Spooner we-Conversation Africa noJulius Maina bakhulume noBrendon Cannon noMartin Plaut.

Yini i-Al-Shabaab?

UBrendon Cannon: I-Al-Shabaab iyiqembu lamaphekula lamaSulumane elakhiwa eSomalia eminyakeni eyishumi yokuqala yaleli khulu leminyaka. Ubuholi bayo bokuqala babungu ehlangene ne-Al-Qaeda, eqeqeshwe futhi elwa e-Afghanistan.

I-Al-Shabaab kwasekuqaleni ezinikele ekususeni ithonya langaphandle eSomalia nasekuletheni indlela eqinile yokubusa kwamaSulumane ezweni. Ekuphakameni kwamandla ayo, azungeze I-2008-2010, yayilawula inhlokodolobha, iMogadishu, nendawo enkulu eningizimu nasentshonalanga yenhlokodolobha, kubandakanya namachweba eMerca naseKismayo.

Ekuqaleni, i-al-Shabaab kwaba Ukuhleleka okuhlelekile futhi okukodwa, okuthe naphezu kokwehluka kwemibono namasu, kwahlanganiswa kakhulu ngaphansi kuka-Ahmed Abdi Godane aka Mukhtar Abu Zubair, umholi waleli qembu ngesikhathi lihlasela iWestgate ngo-2013.

Ngemuva kokushona kwakhe ngo-2014, kubikwa ukuthi i-al-Shabaab iye yahlukana. Lokhu kungachaza ngokwengxenye amawele eqembu le-athomu agxile ekuhlaselweni kweSomalia neKenya. Okusho ukuthi, amasosha aseKenya aqeqeshwe futhi axhumene ngokukhululekile ne-al-Shabaab babonakala benesibopho okungenani sokunye ukuhlaselwa okwenziwe eKenya, ikakhulukazi enyakatho-mpumalanga yezwe.

Yini inhloso yokuhlasela iKenya?

UBrendon Cannon: Iqembu liqale ukuhlasela okuhloswe ngaphandle kweSomalia ngo-2007. Ukuhlasela kwawo kokuqala enhlabathini yaseKenya kwaba ngo-2008. Uhulumeni waseKenya waphendula ngamandla. Ngo-2011, ukuze “Uvikele ukuphepha kwezwe”, umbutho wezokuvikela waleliya lizwe wangena eSomalia eseningizimu wakha indawo yokuhlangana phakathi kwe-al-Shabaab nezindawo ezaziphethwe yiKenya. Ngalesi sikhathi, amabutho aseKenya athumba ichweba laseKismayo futhi ajoyina masosha asuka e-African Union Mission eSomalia ekulweni ne-al-Shabaab.

I-Al-Shabaab kusho esidlangalaleni ukuhlasela kwayo kuyindlela yokuziphindiselela ekuhlaselweni yiKenya Defence Force eSomalia. Kubalungisa futhi izizathu ezingenangqondo ihlotshaniswa ne-jihad yamazwe omhlaba.

Kepha futhi kukhuthazekile ukuhlasela iKenya ngenxa yezinzuzo zokuqashwa nokuqongelelwa imali okuwumkhiqizo oyingxenye wokutholakala kwabezindaba emhlabeni jikelele. Okungukuthi, izindaba ezisekuqaleni kwekhasi zokuhlaselwa kwaleli qembu eKenya zingahlosile zinikeza i-al-Shabaab ithuba lokukhombisa ukuhlaselwa kwayo ngezihlungi ezimbalwa nokuxhaphaza izindaba ezinjalo zabezindaba kunkulumo-ze yayo. Imiphumela yesibhicongo esibulalayo ivame ukusebenza njengamathuluzi aphambili okuqasha ngokwesosha lamasondo nangezimali.

Iphinde iqalise ukuhlasela ngoba iyakwazi. Leli qembu likwazile ukusebenzisa kabi ukungabikho kukahulumeni oqinile eSomalia nase- Amakhilomitha angama-682 ubude umngcele ongenalutho phakathi kwawo neKenya iminyaka eminingana.

Kusukela ngo-2011 iqembu ilahlekile indawo eSomalia. Yize kunjalo, iyaqhubeka nokugcina amakhono futhi ihlose ukwenza umonakalo omkhulu eSomalia naseKenya. Ukuhlaselwa eSomalia sekukhona ngokuvamile kube okuncane, kubhekiswe emasosheni nasemaphoyiseni. Kube khona izehlakalo ezinkulu. Isibonelo ngo-2017 okungenani Kushone abantu abangu-300 ngesikhathi iloli ebeligcwele iziqhumane liqhumisa enkabeni yeMogadishu.

UMartin Plaut: Ukuhlasela kweKenya eSomalia ngo-2011 kwenziwa ngezizathu ezizwakalayo. Kepha isinqumo sokuqhubeka sathathwa ngokuphikisana nezeluleko zabangane baso bamanye amazwe - kubandakanya i-US kanye nomakhelwane bayo i-Ethiopia. Ibutho laseKenya uzame ukusungula iJubaland, ukwahlukanisa izifunda zaseGedo, Lower Juba naseMiddle Juba kusuka kulo lonke elaseSomalia. Ihlangane nempumelelo encane.

Lo mzamo wokuvimbela i-al-Shabaab ekuzisunguleni ngokwabo emngceleni waseKenya sekuwumsebenzi osekude kakhulu, okudala imibuzo ngokuthi ingaxhaswa isikhathi esingakanani nokuthi kubiza malini.

Kungani iKenya idlula ezinye izifunda zangaphambili?

UBrendon Cannon: Njengoba kugqanyisiwe kokunye kwami ​​kwakamuva izihloko, IKenya ihlaselwa kakhulu ukudlula i-Ethiopia noma ezinye izifundazwe ezisempumalanga ye-Afrika. Lokhu kungenxa yezizathu ezinengqondo kakhulu ezisuselwa ekuhlaziyweni kwezindleko-nzuzo nokuba khona kwamathuba amaningi.

IKenya ibonakala kakhulu emazweni omhlaba futhi imithombo yezindaba yayo ekhululekile futhi ezimele imemezela kabanzi ukuhlaselwa kwamaphekula. Esinye isici ukuthi iKenya isungule umkhakha wabavakashi onenzuzo ohlinzeka ngezinjongo ezithambile.

Izinzuzo ezengeziwe ukuthi kunenani eliphakeme labalwa ngokuzalwa abazalwa eKenya phakathi kwamaqembu anolwazi lwendawo. Lokhu kusize i-al-Shabaab ukuba ihlasele futhi igcine amaseli obushokobezi eKenya. Ukwanda kwendawo yentando yeningi kanye nezinga eliphezulu lenkohlakalo nakho kusho ukuthi iqembu liyakwazi ukusebenzisa ubuthakathaka bokubusa bezwe uma kukhulunywa ngezokuphepha.

Zonke lezi zinto eziguqukayo zisiza ukuhlela kwe-al-Shabaab nokwenza izenzo zobuphekula ngenkathi kufezwa ukufuna kweqembu ukusinda ngokugcina ukuhambisana.

Kuthini ukuhlolwa kwakho kwempendulo esheshayo yaseKenya?

UBrendon Cannon Imibiko ngesigameko sakamuva ithi isahlukanisiwe. Kepha, kubonakala sengathi maqondana nezokuphepha kube nenqubekela phambili ethile kusukela nge I-Garissa University ukuhlaselwa ngo-2015 nokuhlaselwa kwe I-Westgate Mall e 2013.

Impendulo yamabutho ezokuphepha aseKenya, ikakhulukazi iGeneral Service Unit - uphiko lwezempi e-National Police Service of Kenya - ibonakala ziye zaba esifike ngesikhathi futhi ngempumelelo.

Iqiniso elidabukisayo ukuthi ukuhlaselwa okuhlelekile - okugcwele abashayeli bamabhomu abazibulalayo, kanye namaphekula ahlome kakhulu futhi akhuthazekile ngokumelene nezinhloso ezithambile - kunzima kakhulu ukukuvimba. Akunandaba noma ngabe ukuphepha kunobungcweti futhi kuqine kangakanani.

UMartin Plaut: Njengoba uMurithi Mutiga, we-International Crisis Group, esekushilo, ukuhlaselwa kwangaphambilini kubonise ukuthi abantu baseKenya baphindiselwa kumaSulumane. Iziphathimandla zaphendula ngokuboshwa kwengubo yamaSulumane ngengubo nokulwa ngokungakhethi okubhekiswe kubantu baseSomalia. Lokhu kwaqubula ukungezwani futhi kwenza izinto zaba zimbi kakhulu. Kubaluleke kakhulu ukuthi leli phutha lingaphindwa. Ukuhlangana kuphela lapho abaseKenya banganqoba khona usongo olubangelwa yilokhu kuhlasela kwamaphekula.

Yini engenziwa yiKenya ukubhekana nale nhlekelele?

UBrendon Cannon: Noma ngabe lokhu kuhlasela kubi kangakanani, kufanele wazi ukuthi izindawo ezinkulu zezentengiselwano nezindawo zokuvakasha zikugweme kakhulu ukuhlaselwa yi-al-Shabaab kusukela ngo-2013 - kuze kube izolo. Lokhu kumangalisa kakhulu ngoba izakhi ezingaphakathi kwe-al-Shabaab zihlala zikhuthazekile futhi zinamandla okuqhubeka nokuhlasela iKenya.

Ngiyabuza izizathu zabathile osopolitiki abagqugquzela ukuhoxa kombutho wezokuvikela eKenya eSomalia njengendlela yeKenya yokugwema ukuhlaselwa. Ngemuva kwakho konke, i-al-Shabaab ihlasele iKenya amahlandla amaningi ngaphambi kuka-2011 lapho i-KDF ingena eSomalia.

Ukuqhubekela phambili, iKenya kumele izame ukuqinisa izindlela zokulawula imingcele, isakaze amandla ombuso kulo lonke izwe laseKenya iphinde ivuselele impi yayo yokulwa ne-al-Shabaab eSomalia: impi eye yehle kakhulu kusukela ngo-2015.

Lona ngumsebenzi kaHerculean futhi uhulumeni waseKenya nabachwepheshe bezokuphepha, abanikezwe uhlobo nohlobo losongo, okufanele banconywe ngokwenza kahle kakhulu kusukela ngo-2013.

UMartin Plaut: AbaseKenya kumele babekezele futhi babekezelele - bakhe ukuxhumana phakathi kwemiphakathi yabo futhi babhekane nosongo ngokubambisana. Ngasikhathi sinye kudingeka ukuthi kubuyekezwe kabusha iqhaza leKenya ngaphakathi eSomalia. Akukho okukhombisa ukuthi i-al-Shabaab ingahlulwa ngamandla angaphandle, noma ngabe ingenziwa buthakathaka.

Uhulumeni waseSomalia wehluleke kaninginingi, muva nje ukuvimbela uMukhtar Robow, owayekhulumela i-al-Shabaab, ukubamba iqhaza okhethweni. Lapho indlela uRobow aphathwa ngayo futhi wakhuliswa ngayo ngummeli oyinhloko we-United Nations, uNicholas Haysom, wayenjalo umemezele umuntu ongeyona grata, ngokumxosha eSomalia.

UBrendon J. Cannon, Umsizi kaProfesa Wezokuphepha Komhlaba Wonke, Isikhungo Sokuphepha Komphakathi Nezomphakathi (IICS), I-Khalifa University futhi UMartin Plaut, Senior Research Fellow, Uphondo lwe-Afrika kanye ne-Afrika eseNingizimu, i-Institute of Commonwealth Study, Isikole Sokufunda Okuthuthukile

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