Ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwamajethi amasha kuyaqhubeka nokuba nzima ezinhlanganweni zezindiza, kodwa inani elikhulu labathwali lisakulungele ukuthatha noma yiziphi izikhala zokulethwa ezivuleka e-Boeing noma e-Airbus, kuthola inhlolovo entsha.
Amaphesenti angu-12 ezinkampani zezindiza eziphendula inhlolovo yomhlaba wonke ye-UBS Investment Research athi ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwezindiza ezintsha akutholakali ngemibandela ephusile. Futhi cishe isigamu salabo abahlela ukudiliva indiza ezinyangeni ezizayo eziyi-18-XNUMX bathi abakayitholi imali.
I-UBS ayizange idalule amagama abaphendulile ocwaningweni lwayo kodwa ithi benza cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yabasebenzisi emhlabeni jikelele abanezindiza eziyi-100 noma ngaphezulu emikhunjini yabo.
Nakuba i-Boeing ithi uxhaso luvikelekile cishe kukho konke ukulethwa kwalo kulo nyaka, omakadebona bemboni baxwayisa ngokuthi u-2010 ungaba nzima kubakhi bezindiza uma izimo zokubolekwa zinganciphisi maduze. Isimo esidabukisayo senza i-Boeing yamemezela ngesonto eledlule ukuthi izokwehlisa ukukhiqizwa kwamajethi abanzi angama-777 ukusuka kwayisikhombisa ngenyanga kuya kwezinhlanu ngoJuni 2010, futhi abahlaziyi abaningana babikezela ukuthi ukwehla kokukhiqiza kuye kuma-narrowbodies angama-737 kuzolandela ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Airbus isaqhubeka nokusho ukuthi ngeke kudingeke ukuthi inciphise okukhiphayo ngo-2010 ngenxa yokusalela emuva kwamarekhodi.
Lokho kusilela emuva kusizile ukuvikela abakhi bezindiza ababili esimeni esibi sokuwohloka komnotho womhlaba kuze kube manje. Nakuba u-28% wabaphenduli ocwaningweni lwe-UBS bethi kungenzeka bahlehlise ukulethwa kwendiza nge-oda, iphesenti elifanayo lithi bazofuna ukukhuphula izimpahla zabo uma izikhala zangaphambili zitholakala.
Kodwa isidingo somhlaba wonke samajethi amasha siyehla kanye nesidingo sezinsizakalo zabagibeli nezimpahla. U-38% nje wezinkampani zezindiza zase-Europe eziphendula ocwaningweni lwe-UBS zithi zisezingxoxweni zokuthi indiza entsha noma uhlelo lube phakathi nonyaka, zehle zisuka kuma-88% ngonyaka odlule. Futhi u-33% kuphela wabaphenduli base-Asia bathi bahlela ukuba sezingxoxweni zokuthenga phakathi nonyaka ozayo, behle besuka ku-83% ngonyaka odlule.
Isidingo sikhule kangcono emakethe yaseNyakatho Melika, lapho ukuncishiswa kwenani elibukhali kuye kwabeka imboni yezindiza zaseMelika ukuthi ikwazi ukwenza inzuzo encane kulo nyaka. Amaphesenti angu-55 abaphendulile esifundeni athi angaphakathi noma ahlela ukuba nezingxoxo phakathi nonyaka ozayo, kusukela ku-XNUMX% ngonyaka odlule.
Kodwa ukuthatha umhlalaphansi kwezindiza ezindala kubonakala kwehlile njengoba amanani kaphethiloli ehle eqophelweni eliphezulu ehlobo eledlule. Amaphesenti angamashumi amathathu nambili abaphendulile ocwaningweni lwe-UBS athi bahlela ukusheshisa ukuthatha umhlalaphansi kwezindiza ezindala ngenxa yentengo kaphethiloli, zehle zisuka ku-38% ezinyangeni ezine ezedlule. “Ukuhamba kancane kokuthatha umhlalaphansi kwezindiza kuzonciphisa isidingo esisha sezindiza,” kuphawula umhlaziyi we-UBS uDavid E. Strauss.
NgoMsombuluko, uStrauss ujoyine iqembu labahlaziyi abakholelwa ukuthi iBoeing kuzodingeka yehlise amanani okukhiqiza angama-737 ngenxa yesidingo esibuthakathaka. "Yize i-Boeing isabambe isilinganiso sayo esingu-737 okwamanje, sikholelwa ukuthi ukuncishiswa ngo-30% -40% kuyadingeka," ebhala encwadini yocwaningo eya kumakhasimende akhe. "Uma kubhekwa izikhathi ezimfishane zokuhola, singalindela ukwehla kokungu-737 okuzokwaziswa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka."
Khonamanjalo, umhlaziyi we-Cowen & Co. u-Cai von Rumohr ngoMsombuluko wehlise isilinganiso sakhe esitokweni se-Boeing “sasebenza ngaphansi kokusebenza kahle” sisuka “sokungathathi hlangothi,” esho ukwehla okungenzeka isikhathi eside kwemakethe yezindiza zomphakathi kanye nokuchayeka kwenkampani ekuncishisweni kokuhlelwa kabusha kwamasosha ase-US.
UVon Rumohr ubikezela ukuthi ukuncishiswa okwengeziwe kwamazinga okukhiqizwa kwe-Boeing kungenzeka. “Ngaphandle kokuvela kwezindaba ezinhle emnothweni nasekukhuleni kwethrafikhi ngo-2010, sicabanga ukuthi ukwehla kokulethwa kwezidingo kungase okungenani kuhambisane nesilinganiso seminyaka emine sokwehla kwezinga elidlule, noma ngabe izimakethe zezikweletu zixega,” usho kanje.
Kodwa umhlaziyi kaMorgan Stanley uHeidi Wood uphinde wagcizelela isilinganiso sakhe “sokukhuluphala” esitokweni se-Boeing, ephawula ukuthi inani lamasheya “likhuphuka eduze kokwehla kwangemva kuka-9-11 ngokubonakala okukhulu kakhulu kwesikhathi eside.”
